Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Thu Apr 2, 2026 1:36 AM

AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
131 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The warm weather continues with even a few record highs possible.
Mainly dry weather outside of daily isolated to scattered shower or
thunderstorm chances, with the highest chance being this later today
into tonight.

2) A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers and isolated
thunderstorms Easter Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 205 PM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...The warm weather continues with even a few record
highs possible. Mainly dry weather outside of daily isolated to
scattered shower or thunderstorm chances, with the highest chance
being this later today into tonight.

Expansive high pressure well offshore extends across the Southeast
and continues to keep winds southwest to south today. This southerly
flow is aiding temperatures in becoming near record today, with
current obs showing lower to mid 80s (upper 70s across the Eastern
Shore). Meanwhile, a surface front is lingering just to our north,
though this front will likely be just a little too far north to
serve as a good trigger for any developing convective activity this
evening. A sfc trough will likely be present just E of the higher
terrain of WV and VA, which will help initiate widely scattered
showers and storms this afternoon to our N and W. Some storms have
already initialized well to our west this afternoon that have been
able to break through the cap. Depending on exact storm-scale
processes and associated boundary interactions, some of this
activity should spread eastward into the VA Piedmont and MD Eastern
Shore by the evening hours. SPC has upgraded the northern portion of
our area (north of I-64) to a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe
weather, while a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) extends from Farmville
all the way to Salisbury, MD. While there is medium confidence in
storm coverage tonight, the main limitations to stronger/widespread
convective activity include: 1) neutral to slightly positive height
tendencies, 2) lack of appreciable mid/upper-level forcing, and 3) a
potential capping inversion, especially S. However, these storms
will be moving into a moderately unstable environment that has been
able to develop within the warm sector this afternoon which will
give them fuel to help sustain themselves and potentially break
through the cap across our area. Shear will be modest, but could
still support some bowing line segments that could produce damaging
wind across areas mainly from the Richmond Metro and north,
including the MD Eastern Shore counties. While damaging wind gusts
are the primary threat due to steep low-level lapse rates,
marginally severe hail could also occur with the moderate shear in
the mid levels. CAMs continue to show storms moving through the
northern half of the local area late this afternoon into the
overnight hours, though some guidance is less excited about
tonight`s activity. Regardless, any area that does see thunderstorms
could receive localized rainfall amounts over an inch.

The sfc boundary advances back to the N Thursday and remains to our
N through Saturday. Therefore, the probability for any measurable
precip is quite low and generally confined to the far W and N,
mainly in the form of a rogue shower/storm approaching from the W.
In terms of temps, most areas should solidly warm into the 80s
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. A backdoor cold front will reside on
the doorstep of the MD Eastern Shore Thursday. Most guidance keeps
the cooler airmass just to the NE, but still expect locally cooler
conditions here and especially at the immediate coast. Otherwise,
widespread warmth is expected areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or
thunderstorms Easter Sunday. Much cooler early next week.

Ridging offshore will remain parked there through Saturday, but a
strengthening low pressure system across the northern Great Lakes
will send a cold front towards the area Sunday and will finally
break down the ridge. This will end our stretch of well above normal
temperatures, with widespread rainfall possible along the front.
Guidance continues with the earlier frontal passage, so while
forecast temperatures are still above normal in the 70s to near 80F
in the SE, they remain a few degrees lower than what was previously
forecast. With some warming still expected ahead of the front,
isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as it moves through with
a few stronger storms possible. Be sure to stay tuned to the latest
forecast if you have outdoor activities planned for the holiday.
Much cooler on Monday and Tuesday with high temperatures only in the
50s and 60s. There is the potential for some frost/freeze headlines
Monday night/Tuesday AM with low temperatures falling back into the
30s for portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Thursday...

Shower and thunderstorm activity from earlier in the evening is
generally winding down, but will maintain VCSH at SBY for a few
more hours. Otherwise, a backdoor cold front gradually drops SE
this morning through today, with the majority of the impacts
anticipated at SBY. Model guidance continues to hint at low
stratus/IFR CIGs at SBY, starting around or shortly after 12z,
and continuing through the remainder of the forecast period.
This has been reflected in the forecast. VFR is expected to
prevail at the remaining sites throughout the period. There is a
low potential for MVFR CIGs at RIC ~11z and continuing into mid
morning. Rain chances are lower this afternoon compared to
yesterday, but cannot rule out a stray shower or storm closer to
the boundary (mainly north of I-64) this afternoon into the
evening. Winds will generally remain out of the S at all
locations minus SBY which will see an E wind later this morning
through much of the period.

Outlook: Lingering IFR CIGs at SBY Friday morning, otherwise VFR
through Saturday at all sites. Isolated afternoon
showers/storms will be possible through Saturday, though PoPs
are lower than they are today. A better chance for widespread
showers is expected along a cold front Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 205 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A brief uptick in S to SW winds is expected this evening into early
  Thursday morning and then again Thursday evening into early
  Friday morning, but should remain below SCA thresholds.

Strong high pressure remains centered over the central Atlantic
Ocean this afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front will drop south and
stall near or just south of the Mason-Dixon line by this evening.

Another uptick of S-SW winds is expected this evening and early
Thursday morning, but will be weaker given a lessening pressure
gradient across the area. No SCA headlines will be required as winds
will remain at or below 15 kt on the Ches Bay, tidal rivers and the
Currituck Sound and under 20 kt on the ocean. Another brief,
marginal surge is possible Thursday evening into Friday morning as
well. Otherwise, benign marine conditions through the week with the
next best chance for SCA conditions coming late this weekend as a
front moves through the local waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs through Saturday, 4/4.

Richmond: Record High:

Wed (4/1)           88/1978
Thu (4/2)           89/1967
Fri (4/3)           93/1963
Sat (4/4)           87/2011

Norfolk:            Record High:

Wed (4/1)           83/2016
Thu (4/2)           87/1967
Fri (4/3)           91/1963
Sat (4/4)           86/2025

Salisbury:          Record High:

Wed (4/1)           83/1978
Thu (4/2)           85/1967
Fri (4/3)           86/1963
Sat (4/4)           83/1999

Elizabeth City:     Record High:

Wed (4/1)           84/2024
Thu (4/2)           86/2014
Fri (4/3)           89/1967
Sat (4/4)           88/2025

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$