Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Thu Apr 2, 2026 1:51 AM

AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
142 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Forecast remains on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder today with beneficial rain through the morning, then
  some drying this afternoon and tonight. Turning milder Friday.

- We`ll continue to see large temperature ranges and rain
  chances through Sunday, but drier and cool next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Colder today with beneficial rain through the
morning, then some drying this afternoon and tonight. Turning
milder Friday.

Strong high pressure over the Maritimes will keep the backdoor
front south of New England today. Persistent E/NE winds will
maintain colder air across region today with little recovery
from this morning`s low temperatures, only topping out in upper
30s to lower 40s.

Large area of rain moving through southern New England will
exit the region later this morning or early afternoon as weak
wave of low pressure and its associated weak mid level short
wave pass through. Models indicate some drying this afternoon
although we may see some spotty lingering drizzle as column
remains saturated but any appreciable lift departs offshore.
Not looking at any issues with river or stream flooding but
rainfall will certainly help with deficits that we`ve
experienced since last fall.

Front will begin to head north again later tonight as low
pressure tracks across upper Great Lakes but true milder air
doesn`t arrive until Friday when we see increasing S/SW winds.
Expect to see little change in temperature along with patchy fog
and drizzle tonight. We can`t rule out some localized pockets
of freezing drizzle in the higher elevations of northern MA
since temperatures could fall to near freezing, but confidence
in its occurrence and resulting impacts is very low. Looks like
a dry day Friday with some breaks of sunshine possible,
especially across interior southern New England.


KEY MESSAGE 2...We`ll continue to see large temperature ranges
and rain chances through Sunday, but drier and cool next week.

Expecting to see a brief shot of warm, moist air Saturday
allowing for a quick temperature peak in the upper 50s to mid
60s before a trailing cold front sweeps through. As the front
stalls later Saturday, it`ll bring colder air and another round
of rain showers. Expecting overnight temperatures to once again
drop into the upper 30s or low 40s. We`ll then see a very
similar situation on Sunday, with a low tracking across southern
Ontario and a one-two punch with a sweeping warm front and
trailing cold front. Will see a short- lived surge of warm,
moist air with the warm front and another cold airmass moving in
not long after as the cold front moves through. Expecting rain
showers to move in perhaps a little earlier in the day with the
Sunday system compared to Saturday`s system, with the heaviest
rain more likely in the afternoon/evening.

Heading into next week, we`ll see a cooler airmass in place,
bringing seasonable or just below seasonable temperatures and a
period of drying out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...Moderate confidence.

E/NE winds prevail as backdoor front remains south of New
England through tonight.

Large area of rain will overspread southern New England early
this morning and should exit region later this morning into
early afternoon, leaving patchy fog and drizzle for the rest of
the day. MVFR/IFR should become more widespread, but admittedly
confidence in its timing and extent remains low. Not seeing a
lot of lower conditions upstream so far but eventually ceilings
should come down, perhaps not as quickly as forecast. May see
brief improvement this afternoon before lowering again in patchy
fog tonight. Slow improvement Friday with VFR ceilings by
afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Uncertainty revolves
around timing of lowering cigs to IFR and how long it persists
today and tonight.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Uncertainty revolves
around timing of lowering cigs to IFR and how long it persists
today and tonight.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with gusts
up to 35 kt. SHRA.

Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence through Thu night.

SCAs expanded across all waters except Boston Harbor and
Narragansett Bay tonight into Thu for NE gusts to 25 kt.
Diminishing E winds Thu night.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Sunday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain showers likely.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231-
     251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ232>234.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ235-
     237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$