Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Thu Apr 2, 2026 1:54 AM

AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
149 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added climate record section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Marginal risk of increased fire danger across the coastal
plain today.

2) Mostly dry with above normal temperatures through Saturday.

3) A cold front will push through the area late this weekend
into early next week, bringing increasing rain chances, cooler
temperatures, and the next best chance for marine headlines.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide until
further notice. Will hold off for now on IFD issuance today
based on NCFS thresholds (MinRH <= 40% AND wind gusts >= 20mph).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry and warming forecast through the remainder
of the work- week, with model consensus keeping the high
anchored offshore, precluding any precip associated with a weak
frontal boundary that is forecast to approach, but not reach,
ENC. Though isolated diurnal showers will be possible each day
given the pattern, the chance is too low to include in explicit
forecast. Best chance, albeit below mentionable in the grids,
will be later in the week (THU-SAT). This trend also favors
warmer conditions across ENC. Above normal temperatures will
continue into the weekend, with high temps mostly in the low to
mid 80s inland and 70s for the beaches. MinTs generally around
60.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front will approach the area Sunday,
moving through later Sunday evening into early Monday.
Increasing shower chances Sunday and Sunday night, along with
isolated thunderstorm potential ahead of the front. NBM has
caught on to the trend in deterministic guidance of the low
pressure system expected to develop and travel along the front
early next week, passing far enough offshore to keep the area
mostly dry early next week. Low level thickness values and N-NE
flow behind the front will lead to below normal temps with highs
mostly in the 60s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions to persist across ENC through the entire
forecast period as high pressure centered offshore keeps the
area dry. High clouds tonight will eventually dissipate after
daybreak bringing little in the way of impact to the area.
Afterwards, much like the previous few days, a diurnal Cu field
will set up by mid to late morning and spread inland this
afternoon. Once again, little in the way of impact is forecast
from this Cu field as a SCT deck at about 3.5-4.5 kft is
forecast before clouds dissipate this evening. Clear skies then
expected Thursday night. Otherwise light SW`rly winds at about
5 kts or less will persist through day break across inland
areas, with 10-15 kt winds with gusts up around 15-20 kts noted
along the OBX. Expect winds to increase slightly across inland
ENC by this afternoon to 10-15 kts with gusts around 15-20 kts.
Seabreeze will bring a slight shift in the winds with winds
turning to a SSE`rly direction behind the seabreeze. Winds once
again become SW`rly tonight and decrease down to about 5 kts or
less.

Outlook (Friday through Monday): Mainly VFR, best chance for sub VFR
late Sun into Mon with rain associated with an incoming front.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show SSW winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-4 ft. High
pressure will remain anchored offshore through the first half of
the weekend, keeping light to moderate S-SWerly winds in place
through the period.

Outlook (Saturday into Tuesday): SSW winds will increase through
the day Sat into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. FROPA
is expected late SUN into MON, which is the next best chance of
SCA conditions both ahead of and behind the front. Front will
be accompanied with showers and tstorms. N-NE winds will develop
behind the front and continue through mid next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High temps for 4/2 (today)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        89/2014   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   77/1986   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      88/1974   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   78/1953   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         90/1974   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    90/1978   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/3 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        89/1963   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   79/1974   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      90/1967   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   81/2007   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         90/1934   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    89/1967   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/4 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        92/1934   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   78/1945   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      90/1967   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   80/2007   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         92/1934   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    89/1963   (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$