Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Thu Apr 2, 2026 2:09 AM

AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
200 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Entire forecast suite has been updated, but no major changes
coming down the track as we hit 2 AM EDT. Aviation discussion
aligns with the latest 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Temperatures Continue to Feel Like Early-Mid May Through
  This Weekend.

- 2) Cold Front Moves Through Late Sunday, Bringing Showers and
  Storms, Cooling Trend Early Next Week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures Continue to Feel Like Early-Mid May
Through This Weekend.

Bermuda high pressure offshore continues to funnel in southerly or
southeasterly flow over the next few days. Offshore ridging aloft
looks rather similar to the surface, which keeps the subsidence
around for quite some time. In other words, the unseasonably warm
temperatures are here to stay through the weekend, with highs
generally in the low-to-mid 80s inland, and up to the mid 70s at the
coast. Instead of early April, it`ll feel like early-mid May outside.

Subsidence will keep the temperature inversion around, which itself
is aided by the cooler onshore flow. Rain chances looking pretty dry
through Saturday. Some isolated exceptions could play out Friday and
Saturday afternoons, where some limited instability could ignite a
shower or two. These chances look rather paltry though, and rainfall
amounts add up to a trace at best.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold Front Moves Through Late Sunday, Bringing
Showers and Storms, Cooling Trend Early Next Week.

Pattern change on the way Sunday, as the next springtime cold front
looks to sweep through the area from the west-northwest. Significant
increases in moisture bring much better chances for rain ahead of
this front. A broken line of showers and storms looks to move
through the area from the west-northwest to the east-southeast
sometime late Sunday and Sunday night. The best kinematics are well
to the north, so this doesn`t appear to bring much of a severe
threat. Unfortunately, the speed of this front also means that we
will be limited in rainfall amounts, despite presence of moderately
heavy rainfall at times. The ongoing drought continues to be a
concern.

Front should be offshore by Monday morning, with rain chances
quickly tapering off. Dry forecast in store through at least the
middle of next week, with a cooling trend taking hold. High
temperatures may struggle to hit 70 Monday and Tuesday, before a
reinforcing front brings even cooler temperatures in the low-to-mid
60s by next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much change in the overall weather pattern today into tonight
with sfc high pressure offshore and light (no higher than 10 kt) S
to SE winds over the local area. Patchy fog is again possible both
this morning and Friday morning, but confidence is not high enough
in it affecting each TAF site to include mention in the TAFs.
Otherwise, dry weather continues with little in the way of cloud
cover other than some cu near/ahead of the sea breeze and some high
clouds.

Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR conditions are expected, although
the potential exists for early morning fog/stratus each morning
through Saturday. Sea fog may become an issue beginning for the
coastal terminals toward the end of the week and up until the CFP
late Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Benign marine conditions and dry weather continue
with sfc high pressure centered well offshore and SE winds up to ~10
kt. Seas 2-4 ft, mainly consisting of a persistent ESE swell
component, as wind waves are rather weak as expected given the weak
local winds.

Friday through Monday...Onshore flow continues through Sunday,
gradually veering from southeasterly to southerly to southwesterly.
Gradient winds increase on Sunday ahead of the next frontal system,
allowing winds to gust up to 20 kts by Sunday afternoon. Front moves
through Sunday night, allowing winds to veer to the west, then
north, then northeasterly by Monday afternoon. Gradient increases
just a tad into Monday morning, and some gusts may get up to 25 kts,
but it doesn`t appear consistent enough to warrant a Small
Craft Advisory at this time. Gradient will start to loosen
midday Monday, allowing the winds to decrease. Seas stay
relatively consistent at 2- 4 ft. Majority of the swell should
be out of the southeast at 7-9 seconds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$