Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Thu Apr 2, 2026 2:09 AM

AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
104 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

 - A HIGH risk of rip currents continues through this weekend for
   coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

 - Next chance for meaningful rain will accompany a cold front
   this weekend, but it will not be a drought-busting rain.

 - A few rounds of small craft advisory-level conditions (gusts
   potentially reaching gale-force) are possible over the Gulf and
   local bays/sounds Sunday through much of next week behind the
   cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Rather strong high pressure over the central Atlantic will
retrograde westward over the next 24 to 48 hours as several
shortwave troughs move across the Central US. Moisture will continue
to surge northward as dewpoints hover in the 60s into the weekend. T
he upper ridge will nose in from the east today allowing for a dry
Thursday and Friday as subsidence from the ridge should squash most
showers. Cannot rule out a sprinkle or very isolated shower but
overall the area should remain dry. Eventually by the weekend, the
parade of upper troughs will be able to break down the high and push
it back east allowing for a more significant rain chance to arrive
by Sunday. A rather potent shortwave will progress across the Great
Lakes driving a "cold" front into the deep south. Given the
plentiful moisture in place, showers and storms will likely
accompany the front as it progresses through our area on Sunday.
Unfortunately, we are in the time of the year where fronts get hung
up and weaken as they approach thus rain chances look to become
drawn out on Sunday. The good news is that a good chunk of the area
should see some help in the aforementioned drought conditions. By
Sunday night, the front should push offshore giving way to a
significantly drier and cooler week next week. Heck we might even
see lows in the 40s as early spring makes one last ditch effort
before summer kicks in.

Some patchy fog will be possible over the next couple of morning
mainly along and east of I-65 where the influences of the upper
ridge and moisture overlap the best. While we do not expect any
dense fog at this time, there are enough signals to at least support
some patchy fog reducing visibilities to around 1 mile or less in
some spots. As always continue to use caution when driving with fog.

Beach Hazards... A HIGH risk of rip currents will likely continue
through the weekend as a moderate onshore flow should persist. While
the winds will not be strong, there should be enough of a fetch and
increasingly strong tides falling during the afternoons to result in
likely hazardous swimming conditions and rip currents. Be sure to
continue to swim near lifeguards.  BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings will gradually develop across interior
portions of the area through the overnight hours. Patchy fog is
possible across interior portions of the area, resulting in brief
drops to IFR to LIFR category visibility. Light southeasterly
winds prevail through the period with ceilings clearing through
the early morning hours. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Winds abruptly turn northerly through the afternoon and evening
on Sunday behind a cold front. A moderate to strong offshore flow
persists through Monday before winds gradually turn easterly on
Tuesday. Expect a few rounds of small craft advisory-level
conditions next week behind the front with gusts to gale force
possible. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      82  64  82  65 /   0   0  10   0
Pensacola   78  64  78  66 /   0   0  10   0
Destin      75  64  76  66 /   0   0  10   0
Evergreen   86  58  85  59 /   0   0  10   0
Waynesboro  85  63  84  63 /  10   0  10   0
Camden      85  60  83  61 /  10   0  10   0
Crestview   84  58  83  60 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$