Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Thu Apr 2, 2026 2:21 AM

AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
220 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Daily morning fog is forecast through the remainder of the workweek
  around the western and eastern flanks of the Tri-State area
  Exercise caution if commuting.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected today and Saturdaywith
  greater convective coverage on Friday and especially Sunday.
  Rain chances linger into early next week.

- A prolonged period of high rip current risk is expected to continue
  at all local beaches. Please heed the beach flags if visiting.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A relative lull in convection is anticipated today as a plume of
mid- level dry air advects in from the west via subtropical
ridging off the Western Atlantic. The best rain chances (15-45%)
are from the inland Western FL Panhandle into SE AL where some
deeper-layer moisture resides this afternoon. Some showers with
perhaps a couple thunderstorms may encroach on the Suwannee
Valley, moving NW from North-Central FL. Prior to that, patchy fog
persists until mid to late morning over parts of the FL Panhandle
& SE AL. Another similar round is anticipated tomorrow morning
with parts of SW GA in the crosshairs. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the mid-to-upper 80s (isolated 90 possible
around Cross City). Lows merely dip into the low 60s.

Better convective coverage is on tap for us Friday afternoon in
response to an upper impulse lifting NE across the region amidst
greater available moisture, adequate diurnal instability and
afternoon seabreeze forcing. Rain chances are maximized at ~44-55%
from the Eastern FL Big Bend to north of the I-10 corridor.
Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of strong-gusty winds,
locally heavy downpours, and perhaps small hail. High temperatures
should be a couple degrees cooler thanks to thicker cloud cover
and better prospects for precipitation.

As a reminder, beachgoers are urged to be cognizant of what color
beach flags are flying and what they mean, as a high risk of rip
currents lingers despite the warm inviting weather.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Fog once again is likely to form Saturday morning in a similar
fashion to recent days, followed by a mostly dry afternoon. The
main exception appears to be over SE AL into the Flint River
Valley where a plume of residual deeper-layer moisture is modeled
to reside. However, convection looks to be isolated at best with
rain chances up to 25% at this time. High temperatures rebound to
the mid-upper 80s.

A large surface cyclone lifting from the Great Lakes into Eastern
Canada drags an extensive cold front into the region on Sunday.
This boundary will be accompanied by scattered to widespread
showers with embedded thunderstorms and collectively give us the
best chance of meaningful rainfall over the past several days.
Severe weather remains questionable with this system given the
fleeting upper-level support and some uncertainty on frontal
timing. An afternoon passage would support better potential for
strong to severe storms as diurnal instability would overlap with
adequate forcing. Stay tuned.

By Monday, ripples within the southern stream mid-upper jet
likely force a wave of low pressure off the TX coast that
traverses eastward across the Gulf. The presence of this feature
maintains mentionable rain chances in the forecast early next week
despite frontal passage as an overrunning type pattern takes
shape. The track of this wave will dictate the axis of highest
precipitation placement, which currently favors the coastal strip
and Suwannee Valley.

Highs in the mid 80s will be common this weekend with lows in the
low 60s. Expect relatively cooler temperatures to usher next work
week as highs drop to the 70s and lows dip to the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Expect some MVFR restrictions in fog this morning at ABY, ECP,
and DHN - ABY due to the recent rainfall with support from
guidance. For DHN, a brief period of MVFR around sunrise. The
aforementioned restrictions are due to fog. Elsewhere and
otherwise, expect VFR through the period. Winds on Thursday
Southeast, except becoming southerly at ECP/TLH and eventually DHN
due to the seabreeze. Some VCTS near DHN during the evening on
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A persistent subtropical ridge of high pressure maintains gentle
to moderate easterly breezes through this weekend with daily
afternoon seabreezes and nightly landbreeze surges. A passing
front some time Sunday afternoon or evening causes winds to veer
southerly and southwesterly. Winds then quickly freshen out of the
north following frontal passage and increase to at or near
advisory levels west of Apalachicola by Monday morning. Rainy
weather is likely to persist into mid week from a wave low
pressure traversing the Gulf. The chances for advisory winds and
seas increase on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A mostly dry and very warm to hot afternoon is expected today
outside isolated showers and thunderstorms from the inland western
FL Panhandle into SE AL. Some convection may move from North-
Central FL into the SE FL Big Bend as well. Minimum RH is forecast
to range from the mid 30s to mid 40s away from the immediate
coast. East to southeast winds prevail into the weekend with daily
afternoon seabreezes contributing to southerly to southwesterly
wind shifts. High afternoon dispersions are expected across the
Eastern FL Big Bend, lower I-75 corridor, and the Wiregrass
Region.

Better chances for more scattered showers and thunderstorms are
on tap for tomorrow afternoon, especially from the Suwannee Valley
to north of the I-10 corridor. Convection will be capable of
frequent lightning, strong-gusty and erratic winds, and locally
heavy downpours. Convective coverage notably decreases on Saturday
as only isolated showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms focus
mainly over SE AL into the Flint River Valley. High afternoon
dispersions are expected mainly along the I-75 corridor.

An approaching frontal system on Sunday likely brings scattered
to widespread showers and thunderstorms - some of which could be
strong. The Western FL Panhandle, SE AL, the Flint River Valley
currently stand the best chance of experiencing a wetting rain as
the front passes through the region. Expect a wind shift out of
the north Sunday evening into Monday morning in the front`s wake.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The best chances for rain over the next several days are Friday
and Sunday, which will be much welcomed given our ongoing extreme
to exceptional drought conditions. An update to the Drought
Monitor will be released later today. For more local drought
information & statements, visit the following websites:
weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought
weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

Additional rainfall is likely early next week, especially along
the coastal strip into the Suwannee Valley. Current amounts range
from about two-thirds of an inch to an inch and a quarter
(isolated higher). Values are subject to change, up or down.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  64  84  64 /   0  10  40  10
Panama City   80  64  80  65 /   0   0  20   0
Dothan        84  62  83  62 /  10   0  40  10
Albany        85  63  84  64 /   0  10  50  20
Valdosta      86  63  86  63 /  10  10  50  10
Cross City    87  62  87  62 /  10  10  40  10
Apalachicola  74  64  75  66 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$