Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Thu Apr 2, 2026 2:51 AM

AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
139 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 138 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Moderate Rip Current Risk through Thursday

- Locally heavy rainfall, small hail, gusty winds possible along
  and behind a cold frontal passage Saturday into Sunday

- Above normal temperatures continue through the work week,
  transitioning to below normal Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Confidence continues to grow with respect to the return of rain and
cooler temperatures across South Texas this weekend. Models continue
to be in good agreement with an upper trough bringing a moderate to
strong cold front through the region sometime between Saturday and
Sunday. With PWAT values increasing to 1.5-1.9" and favorable
atmosphere dynamics, periods of moderate to heavy rain will be
possible this weekend. There still is some uncertainty of exactly
how much rain will fall. Current thinking is that we could see 1-2"
areawide. Therefore, due to the potential of periods of heavy rain,
the Weather Prediction Center has included all of South Texas in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall from Saturday morning through
Sunday morning. Below normal temperatures will return to the
forecast this weekend into early next week in the wake of this late
season cold front.

The weekend is still a ways off and things can change, so keep up to
date with the latest information.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

MVFR conditions are expected to persist over the eastern TAF sites
through most of the morning. Conditions will return to VFR by around
17-18Z. VFR conditions will persist thereafter across all sites
through the day before returning to MVFR conditions again to the
east by this evening. It will be pretty breezy across the region
today with sites especially to the east gusting up to 30 knots.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds will generally persist through
the upcoming weekend. A period of fresh to strong winds is expected
to continue through this morning and a Small Craft Advisory remains
in effect for that period. Seas will generally run 4-6 ft through
early Saturday morning. Isolated showers can be expected through the
end of the week with higher rain chances expected over the weekend
as a cold frontal system moves through.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 138 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Minimum relative humidity values are expected to increase to just
above 30% over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through the
remainder of the week as breezy southeasterly flow prevails. Rain
chances will be in the 10-20% range through the end of the week,
with high chances (80%) of > 0.1 inch rainfall with a cold front and
associated storm system this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    85  71  85  71 /  10  10  10  20
Victoria          85  69  85  69 /  20   0  10  10
Laredo            98  73  97  74 /  10  20  10  20
Alice             91  70  90  70 /  10  10   0  20
Rockport          82  73  82  72 /  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           93  71  94  72 /  20  20  10  30
Kingsville        89  71  88  71 /   0  10   0  20
Navy Corpus       80  73  80  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ231-232-
     236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$