Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Thu Apr 2, 2026 2:51 AM

AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
237 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the week.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the Florida
peninsula through the weekend. The surface ridge axis will remain
north of the forecast area which will allow easterly boundary
layer flow to persist each day. Slight increase in deep layer
today will increase chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms
with the highest pops over the interior. This will be short lived
as drier air aloft will move back over the region for Friday
through Sunday, but still a chance of a mid/late afternoon shower
or storm.

The area of high pressure will begin to move away from the region
late in the weekend as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
The frontal boundary will stall across north central Florida early
next week with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Combination of the upper level ridge/large scale subsidence over the
area and easterly flow will allow temperatures to remain several
degrees above climatic normals through the weekend. High
temperatures will generally be 85 to 90 each day. With the
frontal boundary settling over the northern Florida peninsula
Monday and Tuesday, the increased cloud cover and shower activity
will hold max temps down with highs Tuesday in the lower 70s
north...mid to upper 70s central...and around 80 south. Warming
trend will resume on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 234 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Daytime
heating will generate cumulus clouds across west central and
southwest Florida Thursday afternoon with LCL VFR CIGs 040-050
vcnty all terminals. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will develop during the mid/late afternoon hours vcnty all
terminals with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
High pressure will hold over the waters through the weekend with
easterly winds below cautionary levels each day. As the frontal
boundary approaches late in the weekend, winds will shift to the
north and northwest. The gradient will tighten early next week
with advisory level winds possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
Abundant low level moisture will hold across the region through
the weekend which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity
values above critical levels each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  69  87  68 /  50  30  30  10
FMY  87  68  89  67 /  50  20  20   0
GIF  86  67  87  67 /  60  20  30  10
SRQ  85  68  87  67 /  50  30  30  10
BKV  88  63  88  62 /  40  20  30  10
SPG  87  71  87  70 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$