Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Thu Apr 2, 2026 2:48 PM

AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
145 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Key Messages:

- Unseasonably warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions this week
  improve behind a cold front with deep moisture this weekend.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Easter weekend and early
  next week, with rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, and locally
  higher amounts near 3 inches, by Tuesday morning.

- Adverse marine conditions across the Laguna Madre and Gulf
  Waters with breezy to windy conditions and this weekend`s cold
  front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

BLUF: Above normal temperatures and generally rain-free
conditions will continue through at least Saturday across Deep
South Texas. However, a notable pattern change will bring
unsettled weather beginning late Saturday afternoon and night and
continuing into early next week. This will result in widespread
precipitation chances across Deep South Texas this Easter weekend,
as well as a potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated
flash flooding. In addition, notably cooler temperatures are
expected Easter Sunday into early next week.

Persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will
continue to advect Gulf moisture towards the region, which will
maintain warm and humid conditions through Saturday afternoon. A
tightening pressure gradient in response to a deepening upper
level trough and attendant surface features will further amplify
the influx of rich, Gulf moisture, as well as maintain breezy
conditions. Wind speeds and gusts should remain below Wind
Advisory criteria, but it will still be windy with gusts up to
30-35 MPH through Friday evening. Otherwise, the combination of
highs in the 80s and 90s and increasing humidity will maintain a
minor (level 1 of 4) to moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk through
Saturday. For those participating in any outdoor/holiday
activities, remember to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in
the shade.

The aforementioned upper level trough is expected to track
towards the Central Plains by Friday afternoon and towards the
Great Lakes region through the weekend as the attendant cold front
translates toward Deep South Texas. Ahead of the cold front,
precipitable water values across Deep South Texas will be
anomalously high for early April with values ranging from 1.7-2.0
inches, well above the 90th percentile of climatology. The cold
front is expected to approach the Northern Ranchlands late
Saturday afternoon and evening, and Saturday night into Easter
Sunday morning across the Rio Grande Valley. Precipitation chances
should increase from northwest to southeast as the frontal
boundary interacts with the warm and anomalously humid airmass in
place. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out along the cold front with a threat of gusty winds and
hail, but overall the primary concern is the threat of localized
flash flooding due to locally heavy rainfall.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in agreement of the
window of highest rain chances (70-90%) being Saturday night into
Easter Sunday morning. While there continue to be varying
solutions, the overall set up continues to favor training showers
and thunderstorms as the cold front translates across the region.
Probabilistic guidance indicates there is a medium chance (40-60%)
of 24-hour rainfall amounts greater than 1 inch through Easter
Sunday morning, and a low chance (20% or less) of 24-hour rainfall
amounts greater than 2 inches through Easter Sunday morning. There
remains some uncertainty on the precipitation forecast among
guidance for Easter Sunday overall as there are two potential
scenarios. The first scenario  the cold front is slower to exit
the region, which would likely maintain continued rain chances
into Easter Sunday afternoon and evening. The second scenario
the cold front exits the region by mid morning or early afternoon,
and stratiform precipitation is more isolated to scattered. There
should be more clarity over the next 24 hours or so in regards to
the evolution of this event as it is captured by high resolution
guidance. Rain chances into early next week will also depend on
the placement of the cold front and presence of moisture content.

As far as rainfall amounts, most areas should see anywhere from
1-2 inches Saturday night through Tuesday morning, with most of
the rainfall Saturday night into Easter Sunday morning. Isolated
higher amounts close to 3 inches cannot be ruled out (10% chance
or less), especially if slow- moving, training convection develops
across an area. This may result in isolated flash flooding or
minor flooding/runoff issues. Otherwise, temperatures on Easter
Sunday through early next week will be around 10-15 degrees below
normal for early April.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

VFR will prevail through late this evening at all TAF sites.
Another round of MVFR ceilings should develop once again tonight
after 06-08Z and continuing through at least 14-15Z tomorrow.
Expect persistent breezy southeasterly winds in response to an
enhanced pressure gradient through the TAF period with sustained
winds around 15-20 knots and gusts up to 30-35 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Laguna Madre and Gulf
waters through 4 PM this afternoon as winds and seas remains
elevated in response to a tight pressure gradient. Conditions
should fall below Advisory criteria overnight, but occasional
gusts to 20 knots cannot be ruled out. Small Craft Exercise
Caution to Small Craft Advisory conditions continue into tomorrow
as the pressure gradient remains tight in response to a deepening
upper level system. A cold front approaches this weekend, bringing
increased rain/storm chances, rough seas, and elevated winds. A
Small Craft Advisory is likely this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             73  88  73  88 /   0   0  30  10
HARLINGEN               70  91  70  91 /   0   0  20  20
MCALLEN                 75  94  75  94 /  10   0  30  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         72  96  73  93 /  10  10  20  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      73  80  73  80 /   0   0  20  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     71  86  71  86 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$