Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Thu Apr 2, 2026 5:42 PM

AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Key West FL
539 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions will continue through at least Saturday evening.
  A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys marine
  zones, excluding Florida Bay.

- The fast flow and modest moisture will result in chances of
  showers through tonight and slight chances through the weekend.

- Moderate drought conditions continue across the Keys. Even
  though showers are in the forecast over the next several days,
  it is not expected to be nearly enough to dent the drought
  conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Some light shower activity is possible but confidence in
timing and strength leaves mention out of the TAFs for the time
being. Near surface winds will continue to be easterly at 10 to 15
knots with occasional gusts to near 25 knots.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 432 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
Expansive and strong high pressure across the central North
Atlantic will continue to dominate the pattern through the end of
the week. This will keep the mainly easterly flow in place at
least through Saturday evening as the western side of this
expansive high extends into the Southeast U.S., Florida, and the
eastern Gulf. Therefore, expect breezy conditions to continue
through the remainder of the week as a result. Moisture
undulations around the high will continue to result in episodic
showers with some periods wetter than others. Temperatures will
remain near normal for this time of the year with daytime highs in
the lower 80s and overnight lows in the mid 70s. Dew points will
also remain quite steady in the mid to upper 60s, occasionally
near 70 degrees. There is one thing to watch for tonight through
at least Sunday. It is an upper level feature which is expected to
rotate northeastward from the northwest Caribbean Sea. For the
most part it appears this feature will remain an open low instead
of closed but there are time frames where it may close off. If it
can remain closed off it will only slowly rotate northeastward
prolonging the time it takes to leave the area. This may try to
instigate more widespread and robust shower activity overnight
through Sunday. There are things working for and against this
though. Moisture is plentiful for now but we lack the upper level
support. Tonight through the weekend, this switches to where we
have the upper level support but little low to mid level moisture.
Therefore, only slight chances for showers remain in the
forecast.

There remain signals this pattern will begin to finally breakdown
late in the weekend into early next week. The high in the
Atlantic will retreat away from the area along with a developing
potent low pressure system in the Great Lakes area. This is
expected to lead to a decreased pressure gradient as a result.
This will finally lead to the breezy conditions coming to an end
for the Keys at least temporarily.

In addition, the aforementioned low pressure will potentially
send its frontal boundary southward towards the Keys towards the
middle part of next week. There are some weak signals in the
numerical guidance for a low pressure center to develop along this
boundary in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Also, numerical guidance
is fairly consistent on a rather very strong surface high to move
across the eastern United States which may result in another
potentially stronger blow across the Keys than this latest one.
Details remain fuzzy during this time frame but it appears another
breezy to windy, potentially very windy period may be on the way
for the Keys. This may also lead to a wetter regime along with
cooler temperatures and lower humidity. However, the intensity and
duration for this potential event remain uncertain. Stay tuned!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1045 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect in the Straits of Florida.
Elsewhere, small craft should exercise caution and Small Craft
Advisory may go into effect tonight. From synopsis, expansive and
strong high pressure across the central North Atlantic will
continue to dominate the pattern through at least the first half
of the weekend. This will continue to promote moderate to fresh
easterly breezes, occasionally strong in the Florida Straits. This
high will begin to retreat to the east as we head into the second
half of the weekend resulting in slackening breezes.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for GMZ052>055-
     072>075.

&&

$$