Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Thu Apr 2, 2026 6:39 PM

AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
630 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
6pm...Updated 00Z aviation discussion.

3pm...Rain chances have been cut to 10-30 percent after 6 AM
Monday morning as drier air should punch in behind the departing
front rather quickly. Otherwise no significant changes have
been made to temperatures, winds, or rain chances.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Well above normal temperatures will continue through Sunday.

2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms will peak Sunday into
Sunday night ahead of a cold front.

3) Much cooler weather is expected behind the front Monday
through Tuesday next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above normal temperatures will continue
through Sunday.

An upper level ridge just off the Southeast coast will peak in
strength Friday as the 5840 meter height contour punches as far
west as the NC mountains. Bermuda high pressure (1032 mb at the
surface near Bermuda) will pump a subtropical airmass air
northwestward across the Carolinas for the remainder of this
week into Sunday.

Forecast 850 mb temps near +13C are near or just below the 90th
percentile according to the SPC sounding climatology for MHX and
CHS. Accordingly, model guidance has remained consistent with
inland highs ranging from 80-85 each day with coastal locations
topping out in the mid to upper 70s due to onshore synoptic
winds plus a diurnal seabreeze enhancement. This is about 10
degrees above early April normals but is well below daily
records.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Chances for showers and thunderstorms will peak
Sunday into Sunday night ahead of a cold front.

The upper level ridge will break down Sunday as a hefty shortwave
moves from the Great Lakes into southern Quebec, pushing an
upper trough eastward toward the Carolinas. Local 500 mb
heights should fall by 70 meters between Saturday evening and
Sunday evening. As the ridge breaks down, the mid level flow
should veer southwesterly which should advect a narrow band of
Gulf moisture across the Carolinas.

While we`re still maintaining relatively high (70-80 percent)
chances for showers and t-storms in the forecast Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night, I`m beginning to notice that low
level wind trajectories never introduce Gulf moisture to the
eastern Carolinas. Hysplit back-trajectories show that boundary
layer flow Sunday evening will originate from the Atlantic off
the GA and N FL coastline, but not the Gulf. Model peak
precipitable water values near 1.4 inches Sunday evening are a
bit lower than was indicated yesterday. The expectation is most
locations will see rain, but odds of a drought-busting rain do
not appear substantial.

GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF are beginning to converge with their
forecast 700 mb winds in the 30-40 kt range Sunday afternoon and
evening. This would imply 0-6 km bulk shear values near 25
knots, sufficient for multicell organization but otherwise not
terribly indicative of severe weather. SPC`s latest Day 4
convective outlook has no risk outlines across the area which
seems a good call given the latest models.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Much cooler weather is expected behind the front
Monday through Tuesday next week.

Canadian air will spread across the area Monday behind the
front on Monday. Cold advection will continue through Tuesday
night when models show 850 mb temps bottoming out in the +1C
to -2C range, near the 10th percentile for the MHX upper air
site for early April.

Highs should remain in the 60s Monday through Wednesday. Northerly
winds should veer northeasterly by Wednesday as the Canadian
high moves off the Mid Atlantic coast. Lighter winds with the
approaching high should allow good radiational cooling to occur
Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Lows in the 40s could dip into
the 30s in normally colder locations across interior SE North
Carolina.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Predominant VFR with south winds becoming calm tonight. Some
MVFR fog is possible at LBT or FLO before a shift to spotty
showers ~12Z. A sea breeze will move through the coastal
terminals ~15-16Z.

Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR conditions are expected,
although the potential exists for early morning fog/stratus each
morning through Saturday. Sea fog may become an issue beginning
for the coastal terminals toward the end of the week and up
until the cold frontal passage late Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Bermuda High remains in place keeping winds capped
at 10kt. With such light winds the shorter period waves will be
minimal. The continuation of SE swell energy will keep seas in the 3-
4 ft range.

Friday night through Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will hold
firm through Saturday night with light southerly winds and an
8-second southeasterly swell expected. The high will retreat
farther offshore ahead of an approaching cold front Sunday.
Winds should veer southwesterly and increase to 15-20 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms should also overspread the
area ahead of the front.

The front itself should push off the beaches late Sunday night
accompanied by a shift to northerly winds which could remain in
the 15-20 kt range while veering northeasterly during the day.
Lighter northeast winds are expected Monday night into Tuesday
as Canadian high pressure builds slowly eastward toward the
Great Lakes.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$