Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Thu Apr 2, 2026 7:36 PM

AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
727 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 724 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Daily morning fog is forecast through the remainder of the workweek
  around the western and eastern flanks of the Tri-State area
  Exercise caution if commuting.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected today and Saturday with
  greater convective coverage on Friday and especially Sunday.
  Rain chances linger into early next week.

- A prolonged period of high rip current risk is expected to continue
  at all local beaches. Please heed the beach flags if visiting.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Some generally drier air will suppress shower activity this
afternoon, with the possible exception of SE AL and the western
Panhandle, where PWATs are just high enough to allow some isolated
showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. Later tonight, some
remnant showers and storms from seabreeze activity in Central
Florida will drift NW into the Suwannee Valley, but ending by around
04z. Patchy fog is possible overnight for much of the area, but
mostly in the FL Panhandle and SE AL.

Tomorrow, a pocket of deeper moisture moves into our area from the
southeast, which will allow more widespread convection. Isolated
morning showers are possible in the eastern half of the region,
followed by more widespread showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon as the seabreezes push inland. PoPs are highest (50-70%)
along the I-75 corridor, with chances generally topping out around
30-50% elsewhere. Locally heavy downpours, strong gusty winds, and
small hail are possible. Daytime temperatures will be slightly lower
than the past few days due to the widespread cloud cover, topping
out in the low 80s.

On Saturday, another round of drier air moves in from the Southeast
as it rotates around the subtropical high in the W Atlantic.
Meanwhile, a cold front attached to a large mid-latitude cyclone
over the upper Midwest approaches the area, pushing deeper moisture
into the area from the northwest. Accordingly, some isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon are highest (30-
40%) in SE AL, the inland FL Panhandle, and parts of SW GA. Further
south and east, rain chances are minimal. The lack of widespread
convection will push max Ts back up a few degrees into the mid-80s
across the region.

Despite otherwise warm, enjoyable weather on area beaches the next
few days, a high rip current risk persists through at least
Saturday. Beachgoers should be on alert and pay particular attention
to beach flags.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The aforementioned cold front will push through the Southeast on
Sunday. Despite plentiful moisture, at the moment the dynamics
appear otherwise remarkably unhelpful for producing any widespread
rainfall. Pulses of mid-level vorticity associated with the front
vanish on approach to our CWA, at the same time as the front`s
southward push weakens due to the shortwave trough over the Great
Lakes starts to lift northeast. The result is lower rain chances
than many would hope for in the midst of extreme to exceptional
drought conditions. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are still
likely Sunday afternoon in SE AL, SW GA, and the western FL
Panhandle, with PoPs from 60-80% in those areas. As the front moves
through the rest of the area Sunday evening and overnight, rain
chances drop to 30%. If timing moves earlier in the day, more
widespread precipitation would become a possibility, with some
potential for associated severe weather. But, for the time being, it
looks like a relatively dry frontal passage for most of the area.

On Monday and Tuesday, with some pulses of energy moving along the
front stalled just to our south, we could see some isolated showers
and storms, with the main focus being along the coastal Big Bend and
Suwannee Valley. Otherwise, very dry air behind the front keeps rain
chances low or nonexistent in our Alabama and Georgia counties.
Another shortwave trough over the Midwest will push the front fully
away from our CWA late Tuesday, ushering in dry weather on Wednesday
and Thursday. Temperatures will cool off in the wake of the front,
with lows in the 50s throughout the week, and highs in the low to
mid-70s on Monday slowly increasing to the upper 70s by Thursday.
Dew points will also plummet into the low to mid-40s on Tuesday,
potentially even reaching the upper 30s in our northernmost
counties, making fire a potential concern for the early parts of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the night. Some low
ceilings and/or patchy fog with MVFR conditions are expected at TLH
and VLD early Friday morning with VFR returning later in the
morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for Friday
afternoon with the highest chances (50-70%) at VLD and ABY.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A persistent subtropical ridge of high pressure maintains gentle
to moderate easterly breezes through this weekend with daily
afternoon seabreezes and nightly landbreeze surges. A passing
front some time Sunday afternoon or evening causes winds to veer
southerly and southwesterly. Winds then quickly freshen out of the
north following frontal passage and increase to at or near
advisory levels west of Apalachicola by Monday morning. Rainy
weather is likely to persist into mid week from a wave low
pressure traversing the Gulf. The chances for advisory winds and
seas increase on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Better chances for more scattered showers and thunderstorms are
on tap for tomorrow afternoon, especially from the Suwannee
Valley to north of the I-10 corridor. Convection will be capable
of frequent lightning, strong-gusty and erratic winds, and
locally heavy downpours. Convective coverage notably decreases on
Saturday as only isolated showers and perhaps a couple
thunderstorms focus mainly over SE AL into the Flint River
Valley. High afternoon dispersions are expected mainly along the
I-75 corridor.

An approaching frontal system on Sunday likely brings scattered
to widespread showers and thunderstorms - some of which could be
strong. The Western FL Panhandle, SE AL, the Flint River Valley
currently stand the best chance of experiencing a wetting rain as
the front passes through the region. Expect a wind shift out of
the north Sunday evening into Monday morning in the front`s wake.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The best chances for rain over the next several days are Friday
and Sunday, which will be much welcomed given our ongoing extreme
to exceptional drought conditions. For more local drought
information & statements, visit the following websites:
weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought
weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

Additional rainfall is likely early next week, especially along
the coastal strip into the Suwannee Valley. Current amounts range
from about two-thirds of an inch to an inch and a quarter
(isolated higher). Values are subject to change, up or down.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   64  83  65  84 /  20  50  10  10
Panama City   64  81  65  81 /   0  30   0  10
Dothan        61  83  63  85 /  10  40  10  40
Albany        63  83  64  86 /  10  50  30  30
Valdosta      64  84  63  86 /  20  70  20  10
Cross City    63  86  62  88 /  30  60  10  10
Apalachicola  66  75  67  75 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$