Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Fri Apr 3, 2026 1:36 AM

AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
132 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No substantial changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A backdoor cold front will linger across the northeast
portion of our area through tomorrow morning, with a sharp
temperature gradient expected. Otherwise, the warm weather
continues through Saturday with even a few record highs
possible.

2) A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or thunderstorms
Easter Sunday.

3) Temperatures trend to near or slightly below average early next
week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 PM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A backdoor cold front will linger across the
northeast portion of our area through tomorrow morning, with a sharp
temperature gradient expected. Otherwise, the warm weather continues
through Saturday with even a few record highs possible.

A backdoor cold front is current draped across the MD Eastern Shore
counties and just to the north of our northern tier of VA counties.
Sensible conditions are dramatically different on the north side of
the front versus the south. Obs are showing temperatures in the 50s
to lower 60s and thick cloud cover to the north of the boundary,
with the remainder of our forecast area is seeing mostly clear skies
and temperatures in the lower 80s. Meanwhile, surface high pressure
remains parked well offshore in the north Atlantic and continues to
keep winds from the south to southwest. This southerly wind
direction has kept temperatures well above normal and almost has a
majority of our area feeling like it is June rather than early
April. The front will linger across the Eastern Shore and Northern
Neck, but could potentially dip a little farther south overnight.
Areas of dense fog are possible tonight across the MD Eastern Shore,
so a Special Weather Statement or even a Dense Fog Advisory may be
necessary for this area if this fog does develop. The backdoor front
will advance back to the north of Friday and remain to our north
through Saturday. Therefore, the probability for any measurable
precip is quite low and generally confined to the far W and N,
mainly in the form of a rogue shower/storm approaching from the W.
In terms of temps, most areas should solidly warm into the 80s
tomorrow and Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or
thunderstorms Easter Sunday. Much cooler early next week.

A low pressure system will advance NE across the Great Lakes Region
over the weekend and drag a strong front through the area on Sunday.
Guidance continues to show a late morning frontal passage for the NW
then finally making it across the SE by the early evening. This will
likely cause a solid temperature gradient across the area during the
day on Sunday, as temperatures will potentially reach the upper 70s
to near 80F in the SE. This will lead to some instability in this
area, so isolated thunderstorms are possible throughout the day as
the front moves through. There will be at least be the potential for
a few stronger storms, especially SE, with machine-learning/AI
models still hinting at the possibility. Total rainfall from this
system likely ranges from 0.25" to 0.50" with locally higher amounts
in storms. Ensemble guidance probs for 1" of rainfall remain low at
this time.  It will also become breezy along and ahead of the front
during the day Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures trend to near or slightly below average
early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines.

Temperatures trend closer to average or below average early next
week in the wake of the front. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will
generally be in the 60s. Another front drops south Tuesday-Tuesday
night with strong high pressure building north of the area for
Wednesday. High temperatures will likely struggle to get out of the
50s for a majority of the area Wednesday due to cool NE flow. There
will be the potential for frost or freeze headlines both Tuesday
night-Wednesday AM and Wednesday night-Thursday AM for areas where
the growing season has started with temperatures falling back into
the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 530 AM EDT Friday...

A backdoor cold front is sitting across the northern
third of the FA with SBY seeing LIFR conditions from patchy to dense
fog. The fog is expected to last through the night, improving after
sunrise (~14-15z) at SBY. Depending on how far south the front
drops, RIC could see some fog develop and flight restrictions
between 10-14z. Have maintained a TEMPO for MVFR CIGS and VIS for
this time period at RIC, as satellite imagery shows the front
continuing to move southward at the time of writing. Otherwise, VFR
conditions for ORF/PHF/ECG through the TAF period. Winds will be
southwesterly during the day, as the front pushes back north. Gusts
up to 20-25 kt is expected at most terminals between 16-23z.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected tomorrow afternoon through
Saturday at all sites. Widespread showers and possible flight
restrictions are expected Sunday along a stronger cold front
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A brief uptick in S to SW winds is expected this evening, mainly
near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, as a front moves south across
the area, but wind speeds should remain below SCA thresholds.

- Benign marine conditions continue through Saturday, with SCAs
likely Saturday night through Sunday night both ahead of and behind
a cold front.

Strong high pressure remains centered over the central Atlantic
Ocean this afternoon. Meanwhile, a slow moving backdoor cold front
has pushed through the upper bay and coastal waters north of
Parramore Island. Winds are NE at 10-15 kt north of the front, with
SW winds of 5-15 kt over the remainder of the waters. That front is
progged to stall over the bay/coastal waters near Cape Charles
tonight before retreating well to our north Friday morning. Sub-SCA
conditions prevail through tonight with winds eventually becoming
south at 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt over all of the waters by Fri
AM. There is also the potential for dense fog over the northern
coastal waters and bay N of Windmill Pt tonight (mainly on the cool
side of the front). S-SW winds of ~15 kt prevail on Friday and
Saturday. A brief period of low-end SCAs is possible Friday night on
the bay and northern coastal waters, but confidence remains low.
SCAs appear more likely from late Saturday night through Sunday
night. S-SW winds increase to ~20 kt with gusts of ~25 kt by late
Saturday night due to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of an
approaching cold front. That front crosses the waters late Sunday
afternoon-late Sunday evening, with a period of low-end SCAs with N-
NW winds likely Sun night-Mon AM with CAA following the FROPA. A
secondary cold front will likely bring SCAs to the waters Tuesday
night-Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
New record highs were set at Norfolk (86) and Wallops Island (80)
and tied at Salisbury (83) on Wednesday, April 1.

Record highs through Saturday, 4/4:

Richmond:           Record High:

Thu (4/2)           89/1967
Fri (4/3)           93/1963
Sat (4/4)           87/2011

Norfolk:            Record High:

Thu (4/2)           87/1967
Fri (4/3)           91/1963
Sat (4/4)           86/2025

Salisbury:          Record High:

Thu (4/2)           85/1967
Fri (4/3)           86/1963
Sat (4/4)           83/1999

Elizabeth City:     Record High:

Thu (4/2)           86/2014
Fri (4/3)           89/1967
Sat (4/4) 88/2025

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$