Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Fri Apr 3, 2026 1:39 AM

AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
123 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes since the previous update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Marginal risk of increased fire danger across the coastal
plain today.

2) Mostly dry with above normal temperatures through Saturday.

3) A cold front will push through the area late this weekend
into early next week, bringing increasing rain chances, cooler
temperatures, and the next best chance for marine headlines.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide until
further notice. RHs have failed to drop below 40% this afternoon
and winds have stayed just below criteria. Fire weather risk
will be marginal for the next couple of days, and IFD issuance
may still be needed in subsequent forecasts.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry and warming forecast through the remainder
of the work- week, with model consensus keeping the high
anchored offshore, precluding any precip associated with a weak
frontal boundary that is forecast to approach, but not reach,
ENC. Though isolated diurnal showers will be possible each day
given the pattern, the chance is too low to include in explicit
forecast. Best chance, albeit below mentionable in the grids,
will be later in the week (THU-SAT) as trough approaches from
the west. This trend also favors warmer conditions across ENC.
Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend, with
high temps mostly in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s for the
beaches. MinTs generally around 60. A few records could be
threatened through the rest of the week - see the CLIMATE
section for details.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front will approach the area Sunday,
moving through later Sunday evening into early Monday.
Increasing shower chances Sunday and Sunday night, along with
isolated thunderstorm potential ahead of the front. QPF amounts
are trending somewhat lower from the previous forecast but
forcing still appears strong enough to warrant continued
categorical PoPs for the period.

NBM has caught on to the trend in deterministic guidance of the
low pressure system expected to develop and travel along the
front early next week, passing far enough offshore to keep the
area mostly dry early next week. Low level thickness values and
N-NE flow behind the front will lead to below normal temps with
highs mostly in the 60s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Have made some minor tweaks to the forecast tonight based off
the latest guidance with biggest change being the removal of the
TEMPO MVFR vis group across EWN/OAJ. Think if any fog does
develop it will be ground fog (MIFG) with little to no impact
to operations across the Crystal Coast. With this in mind, have
kept the 6SM MIFG in the OAJ/EWN TAFs to account for this
threat, but have it starting closer to 9Z and dissipating by
13Z. Worth noting is sea fog near the Nern coastal waters
overnight. This seafog may spread over NOBX terminals. This fog
has a higher incidence rate within the model suite and may
reduce VIS to IFR or lower over NOBX terminals like FFA and MQI.

Otherwise expecting a primarily VFR TAF through the period.
Much like the previous few days, any ground fog/seafog that
develops is forecast to quickly dissipate after sunrise with a
diurnal Cu field developing across ENC by mid morning. Ceilings
likely remain somewhere between 3.5-4.5 kft and cloud deck is
either SCT/BKN this afternoon before clouds dissipate this
evening giving way to mo clear skies Fri night. South winds may
occasionally gust up to 20kt during the afternoon Fri, but
sustained, and frequent, gusts to 20kt are not expected. Winds
quickly ease after sunset falling to 5-10 kts Fri night. Low
threat of an additional round of ground fog/seafog Fri night as
well given similar weather pattern.

Outlook: We do remain under VFR conditions through Sat. Best
chance for sub VFR conditions occurs Sun into Sun night with a
frontal passage. This front will bring a threat for low clouds
and reduced visibility as SHRA/TSRA impacts the area. Gusty
winds out ahead of the front on Sun will also be possible with
gusts up around 20-25 kt currently forecast. Winds do ease Sun
night but will shift from a SW to NW direction behind the
frontal passage. Lighter winds and VFR conditions then return
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show Serly winds generally 5-10kt inside, 10-15kt
with some higher gusts over outside waters N of Cape Lookout
with seas 3-5 ft. High pressure will remain anchored offshore
through the first half of the weekend, keeping light to moderate
S-SWerly winds in place through the period. Serly winds remain
in place FRI generally 10-15kt gusting up to 20kt during peak
heating. With the evening update, have added sea fog to Wx grids
based off latest guidance and previous VIS forecast iteration.
This fog could be dense at times and conditions will need to be
monitored for possible Marine Dense Fog Advisory issuance. Nern
coastal waters are only area of concern, though in the early
morning hours, fog may advect across NOBX and into Nern sounds.

Outlook (Saturday into Tuesday): SSW winds will increase through
the day Sat into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. FROPA
is expected late SUN into MON, which is the next best chance of
SCA conditions both ahead of and behind the front. SCA
conditions could begin as early as Saturday night. A minority of
guidance does depict a minor risk of gales (10-20%), although
this is confined to the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Front will
be accompanied with showers and tstorms. N-NE winds will develop
behind the front and continue through mid next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 4/2 (today)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        89/2014   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   77/1986   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      88/1974   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   78/1953   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         90/1974   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    90/1978   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/3 (Friday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        89/1963   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   79/1974   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      90/1967   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   81/2007   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         90/1934   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    89/1967   (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 4/4 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        92/1934   (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   78/1945   (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      90/1967   (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   80/2007   (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         92/1934   (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    89/1963   (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$