Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Fri Apr 3, 2026 3:09 AM

AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
300 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms focus the most across the Eastern
  FL Big Bend into SW GA this afternoon. Convection will be
  capable of strong-gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally
  heavy rain.

- A cold front crossing the region on Sunday brings high coverage
  of showers and thunderstorms - some of which may be strong
  (isolated severe weather is also possible). Otherwise, expect
  some beneficial rains from this system.

- A prolonged period of high rip current risk is expected to
  continue at all local beaches into the weekend. Please heed the
  beach flags if visiting.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Satellite observations show a shortwave trough tracking across
the Lower MS Valley and fog/low stratus developing east of Mobile
Bay. The former will provide forcing for scattered showers and
thunderstorms focusing from the East FL Big Bend into SW GA,
especially around the I-75 corridor.

An unseasonably moist airmass supports multi-cell
clusters/mergers capable of strong-gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. In fact, local CAMs show
probabilities up to 20-25% of isolated 3-inch pockets with an
excess of 2 inches as a "reasonable worst case" along/south of the
I-75. Such amounts could produce short-lived runoff issues,
ponding of water, or nuisance flooding in urban/low-lying/poor-
drainage locations. Convection should gradually diminish after
sunset as diurnal instability wanes. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the low to mid 80s while lows merely drop to the
low 60s. Patchy fog encroaches on the western and eastern flanks
of the Tri-State area late tonight.

Beachgoers are urged to continue monitoring beach flags if
visiting as a high risk of rip currents persist into the weekend
despite the warm, inviting weather.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

For tomorrow, rain chances shift to SE AL, Flint River Valley,
and parts of the inland FL Panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms
look to drift NE through the afternoon in a summer-like fashion
where there isn`t much organization, but rather pulsy loose cell
structures occasionally clustering together and/or producing new
cells via outflow boundaries.

Attention then turns to an extensive cold front marching into the
region some time on Easter Sunday. This boundary will be
accompanied by widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of
which could be strong. Confidence is lower than normal on the
prospects for severe weather thanks in part to some continued
uncertainty on the front`s arrival. A daytime passage would
theoretically raise chances for more robust convection as diurnal
instability increases. Even so, fleeting upper-level support and
max modeled deep-layer shear around 20-25 kts suggests a low
likelihood of severe thunderstorms. Regardless, widespread
beneficial rains are expected with this system, something that we
definitely need given our ongoing/worsening drought situation.

Drier conditions filter in behind the front via northerly winds
going into Monday. However, an active southern stream impulse
forces a wave of low pressure off the TX coast that then traverses
the Gulf. The track of this feature will play an important role
on any further rainfall following Sunday`s event. The best chances
for seeing another round of precipitation is along the coastal
strip into the Suwannee Valley. However, this current model cycle
has trended southward with the Gulf wave (i.e., ECMWF/CMC) with
the GFS a bit more north. Inland locations likely dry out
completely by late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Highs mainly in the low 80s are forecast on Sunday afternoon,
then get knocked down into the 70s through mid next week. Lows in
the low 60s Sunday morning cool to the 50s for the remainder of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 106 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MVFR cigs are expected early this morning for all terminals
through daybreak. Along with low stratus, there may be some patchy
fog throughout the region. Showers and thunderstorms will begin
to move in from the Gulf during the morning hours and continue
through the afternoon affecting the ABY and VLD terminals. TLH and
DHN may see thunderstorms but confidence is lower, hence the
PROB30 group. Shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish
following the sunset. Winds on Friday will generally be
southeasterly, and becoming more southerly during the evening. VFR
conditions are expected during the day, however MVFR cigs/vsbys
may be possible in showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A persistent subtropical ridge of high pressure maintains gentle
to moderate easterly breezes through this weekend with daily
afternoon seabreezes and nightly landbreeze surges. A passing
front some time Sunday afternoon or evening causes winds to veer
southerly and southwesterly. Winds then quickly freshen out of the
north following frontal passage and approach advisory levels west
of Apalachicola by Monday morning. Rainy weather is likely to
persist into mid week from a wave low pressure traversing the
Gulf. The chances for advisory winds and seas increase on Tuesday
and persist the remainder of the work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Expect a more convectively active afternoon today compared to
yesterday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are poised to focus
the most from the SE FL Big Bend into SW GA, especially around
the I- 75 corridor. Convection will be capable of strong-gusty-
erratic winds, frequent lightning, and potential locally wetting
rains. Overall rain chances decrease with westward extent - i.e.,
less coverage over the Central Timezone counties.

For tomorrow afternoon, the convective focus flips to the inland
FL Panhandle towards the Wiregrass-Flint River Valley with the
best chances over SE AL. On Sunday, a cold front gradually pushes
through the Tri-State area and will be accompanied by widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms with increasing winds out of
the SW ahead of it. The latter fosters high afternoon dispersion
potential across parts of the FL Big Bend & South-Central GA. Some
storms may be strong. Wetting rains appear likely along/NW of an
Albany-Marianna- DeFuniak Springs line.

After a prolonged period of prevailing east to southeast winds,
we see a switch out of the north on Monday following frontal
passage. However, conditions do not look to completely dry out as
a wave of low pressure traverses eastward across the Gulf. This
system keeps rain chances in the forecast early next week - best
potential along the coast into the Suwannee Valley.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

The best chances for rain over the next several days are today
and Sunday, which will be much welcomed given our ongoing extreme
(D3) to exceptional (D4) drought conditions. Yesterday, we saw
further D3- D4 expansion. Additional rainfall is likely early next
week, especially along the coastal strip into the Suwannee
Valley. Current amounts are up to about 1.25 inches (isolated
higher) east of the Apalachicola River. Values are subject to
change.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the
following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought
weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   83  65  84  61 /  40  10  10   0
Panama City   80  66  81  64 /  20  10  10  10
Dothan        83  63  84  60 /  40  20  60  10
Albany        83  64  84  62 /  50  30  30  10
Valdosta      83  63  86  63 /  60  30  10  10
Cross City    86  62  88  63 /  50  20  10   0
Apalachicola  75  67  76  64 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$