Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Fri Apr 3, 2026 7:33 AM

AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
631 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Locally heavy rainfall, small hail, gusty winds possible along
  and behind a cold frontal passage Saturday into Sunday

- Above normal temperatures continue through Friday,
  transitioning to below normal Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday and into
Saturday before the arrival of our next cold front Saturday night.
Confidence continues to increase with the timing of the front while
still remaining a little cloudy in respect to the storm total
accumulations. The ingredients for moderate to locally heavy will be
in place with PWAT values between 1.8-2.0", mid-level PVA and
diffluence aloft. Current thinking for storm total rainfall amounts
Saturday through Monday remain between 1-2" with a worst case
scenario of over 3". Therefore, the Weather Prediction Center has
issued a Marginal Risk (at least 5%) of flash flooding for all of
South Texas for Saturday and Sunday. Confidence on rainfall amounts
should increase within the next 24 hours as the feature begins to
enter the domain of the high resolution models. Below normal
temperatures are expected Sunday through Wednesday with near normal
temperatures returning towards the tail end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Periods of MVFR to VFR conditions will continue to persist
through late morning (15-17Z). Conditions will return to VFR
across the region there after with winds remaining breezy through
the day. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to return to the
region this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds will generally persist through
the upcoming weekend. A period of fresh to strong winds is expected
Friday afternoon for Corpus Christi Bay and the nearshore waters
south of Port Aransas. Seas will generally run 4-6 ft through early
Saturday morning. Isolated showers can be expected through the end
of the week with higher rain chances expected over the weekend as a
cold frontal system moves through.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Minimum relative humidity values are expected to hover just above
30% over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through Friday with
breezy southeasterly flow containing. Rain chances increase
significantly over the weekend (70 to 90%) as a cold front moves
through the area. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches will
be possible through early Monday. Cool and breezy conditions will
persist early next week in the wake of the front. Therefore,
elevated fire weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    84  71  85  62 /  10  20  40  80
Victoria          85  69  84  58 /  10  10  60  60
Laredo            97  74  90  60 /  10  20  70  90
Alice             90  70  89  61 /   0  20  50  80
Rockport          82  73  82  63 /  10  10  40  80
Cotulla           93  72  84  59 /  10  40  80  70
Kingsville        87  70  89  61 /   0  20  40  80
Navy Corpus       79  73  80  65 /  10  20  40  80

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$