Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Fri Apr 3, 2026 7:48 AM

AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
733 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Warm temperatures will continue, with mostly isolated to scattered
  showers and thunderstorms possible through Saturday.

- 2) A cold front could bring increased rain chances late this weekend
  into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm temperatures will continue, with mostly isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through Saturday.

Strong mid-lvl ridging centered across the western Atlantic will
continue to extend across the Southeast United States, setting up
the stage for warm temperatures to continue today and through late
weekend. At the sfc, the Atlantic high will remain the dominant
weather feature as well, but subtle coastal troughing along its
western periphery should shift onshore, helping produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms today and to a lessor extent Saturday.
Greatest chances for precip should occur along/west of I-95 today
where/when moisture is deeper (PWATs 1.5 inches/sfc dewpts mid 60s).
There is even some indication in hires guidance that convection
could become numerous across the far interior early/mid afternoon
during peak diurnal heating. Latest HREF guidance indicated a 20-40%
probability of 0.25 inch rainfall accumulation west of I-95, but
most locations in this noted area should see rainfall amounts in the
0.1 to 0.25 inch range. On Saturday, coastal troughing is noticeably
less pronounced and the axis of deeper moisture shifts just inland
of the local area, but a few showers/isolated thunderstorms can not
be ruled out with warm temps in place. Afternoon highs should peak
in the low-mid 80s both days, warmest inland of the coastal
corridor.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front could bring increased rain chances late
this weekend into early next week along with cooler temperatures.

A broad mid-level trough accompanied by a cold front at the surface
will move across the eastern U.S. late this weekend into early next
week, bringing a chance for light rain and cooler temperatures.
However, before the front arrives, expect temperatures to remain
well above-normal given low-level temperature fields above the 90th
percentile per the Ensemble Situational Awareness Tables (ESATs),
resulting in afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s across the
region, though areas along the coast will likely stay in the upper
70s. Can`t fully rule out some weak and isolated showers during the
morning and afternoon given the on-going warm-air advection at
850mb, though chances for any rain remain below 20% in the morning
before increasing throughout the afternoon as the front moves
towards the area.

While wind fields do look to gradually increase, probabilities for
1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in the NBM remain below 20%, which looks to be
fairly representative from the few deterministic MUCAPE profiles for
Sunday afternoon. This looks to keep the threat for severe weather
on the lower end, with the various AI/ML output similarly
suggesting a low threat for severe weather. In regard to
precipitation amounts, overall moisture with this system still
remains rather meager, with most guidance supporting
accumulations less than 0.5 inch. Thus, do not expect to see any
significant improvements to the ongoing drought conditions at
this time.

Notably cooler temperatures look to return Monday in the wake of
FROPA, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to 70s continuing into
the middle of next week. A secondary mid-level wave may dive across
the southeast CONUS late Monday into Tuesday, resulting in a weak
low pressure and additional rain chances. However, model certainty
with this feature remains poor, making it difficult to put too much
confidence behind any one solution just yet.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions should prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through
12Z Saturday. TEMPO MVFR conditions are possible with shower
and/or thunderstorm activity associated with weak coastal
troughing during late morning/early afternoon hours, but have
only been introduced at SAV between 15-19Z today, where greater
precip chances are anticipated prior to activity shifting
further inland this afternoon. TEMPO MVFR conditions could
return at the all terminals late in the TAF period, but
confidence is too low to include in the latest TAF issuance.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail at
CHS/JZI/SAV terminals Saturday, although can not rule out an
isolated shower/thunderstorm impacting the terminals during
afternoon hours. Higher chances for flight restrictions arrive
Sunday afternoon into early Monday due to showers/thunderstorms
associated with a passing cold front. Gusty northerly winds should
also occur post fropa Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: Weak coastal troughing along western periphery of
Atlantic high pressure should drift onshore early morning, producing
a few showers across coastal waters through about noon. East-
southeast winds in the 10-15 kt are expected across local waters.
Seas should generally range between 3-5 ft, although a few 6 ft seas
could approach the outer GA waters early morning, the duration and
impact do not appear sufficient for a Small Craft Advisory.

Extended Marine: Atlantic high pressure will prevail this weekend,
supporting winds/seas that remain below Small Craft Advisory levels
across local waters. A cold front will then approach from the west
Sunday, then shift across coastal waters late Sunday into early
Monday, producing gusty northerly winds and building seas as cold
air advection occurs early week. Small Craft Advisories should be
needed across a majority of coastal waters Monday, and could persist
with an enhanced pressure gradient leading to stronger winds and
building seas into the middle of next week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$