Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Fri Apr 3, 2026 11:30 AM

AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1113 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions will continue through at least Saturday
  evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida
  Keys marine zones.

- A relatively drier pocket of air filtering in will help to keep
  significant rainfall at bay with only spotty, isolated showers
  expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
Yet again a similar day here in the Florida Keys. A few light
showers are being detected on KBYX sprinkled across various
locations of the Florida Straits. GOES-19 Visible Satelitte
reveals partly to mostly cloudy skies in a majority of our area.
Temperatures across the island chain are near 80F with dew points
near 70F. Along the Reef, marine observation sites are recording
near 20 knots sustained winds. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
for all of the coastal waters as a result. As high pressure
continues to dominate our weather pattern here in the Keys,
conditions are expected to stay similar to what we`ve been
experiencing over the last several days; breezy and slight chances
of showers. No changes were needed to the current package on this
update.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 428 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
Deep mean layer ridging remains in place across the western North
Atlantic. The western side of this ridge extends into the eastern
United States from the Mid- Atlantic south to Florida and the
Gulf. Marine observations platforms surrounding the Keys are
observing mainly east breezes near 20 knots as a result. KBYX
radar has remained active overnight, though, not nearly as robust
as earlier in the night when there was a cluster of thunderstorms
across the southwestern Straits. There was also an outflow
boundary that was sent northward through the Dry Tortugas and is
now racing northwestward across the Gulf. GOES 19 Nighttime
Microphysics imagery shows widespread cloud cover across the Keys
resulting in mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures along the Island
Chain are in the mid to upper 70s and dew points are in the lower
70s.

.FORECAST...
Expansive and strong high pressure across the western North
Atlantic will continue to dominate the pattern through at least
early Sunday. This will keep the mainly easterly flow in place at
least through early Sunday as the western side of this high
extends into the Southeast U.S., Florida, and the eastern Gulf.
Therefore, expect breezy conditions to continue through the
first half of the weekend. Slight moisture undulations around the
high will continue to result in slight chances of rain through the
weekend. Temperatures will remain near normal for this time of
the year with daytime highs in the lower 80s and overnight lows in
the mid 70s. Dew points will also remain quite steady in the mid
to upper 60s, occasionally in the lower 70s.

We continue to watch an upper level feature currently over Cuba.
This is expected to continue rotating northeastward through the
weekend reaching the Bahamas by Saturday morning. Latest guidance
shows this feature will remain closed off as it treks northeastward
which will prolong the potential affects it has on the area. This
may try to instigate more widespread and robust shower activity
today through Sunday, especially across the marine area. If
anything, there may be increased cloud cover. There are things
working for and against this. After fairly robust activity last
night across both ends of the Florida Keys forecast area, moisture
will lessen in the low to mid levels today. However, we now have
the upper level support. Since one thing is lacking, the potential
for this being a wetter weekend is slim whereas if we had both of
these ingredients together simultaneously, we`d probably be off
to the races with showers and thunderstorms through much of the
weekend. Therefore, only slight chance of rain remain in the
forecast. An occasional lightning strike or two cannot be ruled
out, though, thunder remains low confidence through the weekend.

The pattern will begin to finally breakdown late in the weekend
into early next week. The high in the Atlantic will retreat away
from the area along with a developing potent low pressure system
in the Great Lakes area. This is expected to lead to a decreased
pressure gradient as a result. This will finally lead to the
breezy conditions coming to an end for the Keys at least
temporarily.

In addition, the aforementioned low pressure will potentially
send its frontal boundary southward towards the Keys towards the
middle part of next week. There continues to be some weak signals
in the numerical guidance for a low pressure center to develop
along this boundary in the vicinity of the Bahamas. However, the
placement and track of this feature remains quite uncertain. Also,
numerical guidance is fairly consistent on a rather very strong
surface high to move across the eastern United States which may
result in another potentially stronger blow across the Keys than
this latest one. Details continue to fuzzy during this time frame
but it appears another breezy to windy, potentially very windy
period may be on the way for the Keys. This may also lead to a
wetter regime along with cooler temperatures and lower humidity.
However, the intensity and duration for this potential event
remain uncertain. Latest guidance has actually come in with a
weaker high also. Stay tuned as guidance seems to be struggling on
the details in the overall pattern for the middle to latter part
of next week!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1111 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of the Florida Keys
waters. From synopsis, expansive and strong high pressure across
the central North Atlantic will continue to dominate the pattern
through the weekend. This will continue to promote moderate to
fresh easterly breezes, occasionally strong in the Florida
Straits. Breezes will tend to peak overnight into the morning
hours, and lull in the afternoon. This high will begin to retreat
to the east as we head into the start of next week, allowing for
breezes to slacken.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Light shower activity is possible at either terminal
throughout the day but due to confidence in timing and exact
locations no mention in the TAFs at this time. Near surface winds
will be easterly at 10 to 15 knots with frequent gusts of 20 to 25
knots.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$