Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Fri Apr 3, 2026 2:03 PM

AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
146 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions will continue through at least Saturday
  evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida
  Keys marine zones.

- A relatively drier pocket of air filtering in will help to keep
  significant rainfall at bay with only spotty, isolated showers
  expected through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Light shower activity is possible at either terminal
throughout the day but due to confidence in timing and exact
locations, mention in the TAFs is not necessary at this time.
Near surface winds will be easterly at 10 to 15 knots with
frequent gusts of 20 to 25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1111 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of the Florida Keys
waters. From synopsis, expansive and strong high pressure across
the central North Atlantic will continue to dominate the pattern
through the weekend. This will continue to promote moderate to
fresh easterly breezes, occasionally strong in the Florida
Straits. Breezes will tend to peak overnight into the morning
hours, and lull in the afternoon. This high will begin to retreat
to the east as we head into the start of next week, allowing for
breezes to slacken.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 428 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
Expansive and strong high pressure across the western North
Atlantic will continue to dominate the pattern through at least
early Sunday. This will keep the mainly easterly flow in place at
least through early Sunday as the western side of this high
extends into the Southeast U.S., Florida, and the eastern Gulf.
Therefore, expect breezy conditions to continue through the first
half of the weekend. Slight moisture undulations around the high
will continue to result in slight chances of rain through the
weekend. Temperatures will remain near normal for this time of the
year with daytime highs in the lower 80s and overnight lows in
the mid 70s. Dew points will also remain quite steady in the mid
to upper 60s, occasionally in the lower 70s.

We continue to watch an upper level feature currently over Cuba.
This is expected to continue rotating northeastward through the
weekend reaching the Bahamas by Saturday morning. Latest guidance
shows this feature will remain closed off as it treks northeastward
which will prolong the potential affects it has on the area. This
may try to instigate more widespread and robust shower activity
today through Sunday, especially across the marine area. If
anything, there may be increased cloud cover. There are things
working for and against this. After fairly robust activity last
night across both ends of the Florida Keys forecast area, moisture
will lessen in the low to mid levels today. However, we now have
the upper level support. Since one thing is lacking, the potential
for this being a wetter weekend is slim whereas if we had both of
these ingredients together simultaneously, we`d probably be off
to the races with showers and thunderstorms through much of the
weekend. Therefore, only slight chance of rain remain in the
forecast. An occasional lightning strike or two cannot be ruled
out, though, thunder remains low confidence through the weekend.

The pattern will begin to finally breakdown late in the weekend
into early next week. The high in the Atlantic will retreat away
from the area along with a developing potent low pressure system
in the Great Lakes area. This is expected to lead to a decreased
pressure gradient as a result. This will finally lead to the
breezy conditions coming to an end for the Keys at least
temporarily.

In addition, the aforementioned low pressure will potentially
send its frontal boundary southward towards the Keys towards the
middle part of next week. There continues to be some weak signals
in the numerical guidance for a low pressure center to develop
along this boundary in the vicinity of the Bahamas. However, the
placement and track of this feature remains quite uncertain. Also,
numerical guidance is fairly consistent on a rather very strong
surface high to move across the eastern United States which may
result in another potentially stronger blow across the Keys than
this latest one. Details continue to fuzzy during this time frame
but it appears another breezy to windy, potentially very windy
period may be on the way for the Keys. This may also lead to a
wetter regime along with cooler temperatures and lower humidity.
However, the intensity and duration for this potential event
remain uncertain. Latest guidance has actually come in with a
weaker high also. Stay tuned as guidance seems to be struggling on
the details in the overall pattern for the middle to latter part
of next week!

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$