Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Fri Apr 3, 2026 3:21 PM

AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
216 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 215 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Widespread rainfall this weekend associated with a cold front

- Stronger and slower storms capable of 2-3 inch rainfall amounts

- Below-normal temps through mid-week

- Monitoring minor coastal flooding Saturday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

The long-anticipated cold front is finally is within reach. Latest
forecast calls for the timing to generally occur Saturday night.
Before the front arrives, light scattered showers will develop in
the warm sector. As the cold front approaches, so does the overall
widespread coverage of more moderate rainfall and stronger showers
and thunderstorms. While some CAMs are showing some beefier
composite reflectivities as the cold front approaches, this will be
very dependent on the breaks of the cloud deck to increase CAPE
values. Inhibiting severe hazards will also be the lack of deep
shear in the pre-frontal environment and along the front. While this
means that SPC has removed the marginal risk for Saturday night, an
isolated stronger storm is not out of the realm of possibilities.
This will be closely monitored based on the overnight CAM runs.

The return of rainfall paints a broad area of 1 inch forecast
rainfall amounts throughout South Texas, though areas along the Rio
Grande will have the greatest chances for 2-3 inches of rainfall
given the more convective nature of storms and due to slow-moving
storms. Any rainfall in our region would be a welcome site given the
on-going long-term drought and while this event is not one that will
see major improvement, what it will provide is a quenching of soil
moisture. We will have to monitor the Laredo urban area as a 2-3
inch rainfall dump would result in urban flooding concerns, so be
aware if traveling through this region. Rain chances will start
diminishing from north to south Monday morning and pushing into Deep
South Texas Monday night.

Temperature-wise, the cold front and rain chances will keep the area
below-normal for temps this Easter weekend (10-20 degrees below
normal for early April high temps). Temperatures increase to near-
normal values by mid-week with the return of onshore flow.

One last thing worth mentioning is that with the recent full moon
phase and wave periods hovering between 7-8 seconds, the chance for
minor coastal flooding will be greatest near high tide Saturday
morning (high tide will occur around 7am off the Port Aransas
jetties). With increased beach traffic expected this holiday
weekend, please be mindful of the water being near the dunes. Will
discuss with the evening crew to see if a coastal flood advisory may
be needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

VFR conditions will persist through this afternoon. This evening,
storms from the higher terrain of northern Mexico will move through
South Texas, becoming more scattered and weakening as it does so.
Given the spatial coverage of the showers, PROB30 groups were added
to account for this. Confidence is increasing that MVFR CIGs will
return tonight. Looking ahead to the next TAF period, a cold front
will begin approaching the area with scattered showers forming ahead
of it.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Fresh to strong (BF 5-6) southeasterly winds will wane after
midnight and remain at a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) breeze prior to
the cold front Saturday night. By Sunday morning, 20-25 kt
northeasterly winds will increase seas to 4-6 ft Monday morning and
then to 6-7 ft by Monday afternoon. With the cold front, rain
chances will increase Saturday night (70-90% chance) through Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

From this weekend, rain chances across much of South Texas, keeping
the fire risk low. Chances for a wetting rain rain remain high
across much of the region. Min RH`s will remain above 40% through
mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    71  85  62  70 /  20  30  80  70
Victoria          69  85  57  70 /  20  60  60  40
Laredo            74  90  59  64 /  30  70  90  80
Alice             71  89  60  70 /  20  50  80  70
Rockport          72  82  62  75 /  10  30  80  60
Cotulla           71  85  57  65 /  50  70  70  60
Kingsville        71  88  61  70 /  20  30  90  70
Navy Corpus       73  80  65  71 /  20  20  90  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$