Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Fri Apr 3, 2026 6:51 PM

AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
647 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section has been updated for the 04/00z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Warm temperatures will continue, with isolated to
  scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through Saturday.

- 2) A cold front will bring increased rain chances Sunday
  afternoon into Monday morning, followed by cooler
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm temperatures will continue, with isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through
Saturday.

Saturday is expected to bring another warm day with highs
rising into the low to mid 80s away from the immediate coast.
Without the benefit of the subtle coastal trough moving onshore
like today, Saturday is expected to bring far less coverage of
showers and storms. Instead, the bulk of the activity is
expected to be much further inland. The best chance for isolated
to scattered diurnal convection will be across the interior
counties including Tattnall, Candler, Evans, Bulloch, Jenkins,
Screven, and Allendale. Much like today, no severe threat is
expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front will bring increased rain chances
Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, followed by cooler
temperatures.

The mid-levels will consist of a broad trough over the eastern
half of the U.S. Sunday and Monday. At the surface, a cold front
will be approaching our region from the west and northwest on
Sunday. The front will usher a plume of deep moisture from the
Gulf into our region. PWATs should peak ~1.7" which is above the
90% mark for CHS sounding climatology, per SPC. The combination
of lift and moisture should generate some rain across our area
from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. While there remain
some differences in QPF amounts between the models, the general
consensus is storm total below 0.3". So this won`t be enough
rain to put much of a dent in the drought or cause flooding
issues. Otherwise, POPs generally peak in the chance to likely
category. As far as the thunderstorms potential, there is
minimal instability in place ahead of the front. So there could
be a few rumbles of thunder ahead of and with the front, but the
severe risk is very low. The front will move through Sunday
night, followed by drier conditions by later Monday. As for high
temperatures, ahead of the front they`ll remain well above
normal, generally in the 80s, except cooler at/near the beaches.
Behind the front, temperatures drop to near seasonal levels on
Monday, then generally continuing through the middle of next
week. Temperatures rise towards the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
04/00z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 05/00z. Some shallow ground could
develop near KSAV just before daybreak and possibly allow for a
brief period of MVFR vsbys, but no significant impacts are
expected. The main focus for isolated/scattered showers/tstms
should remain west of the terminals for Saturday afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: A cold front will bring higher
probabilities for flight restrictions Sunday afternoon through
Monday morning, followed by gusty northerly winds on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday Night: Overall, conditions should remain
pretty quiet and below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Winds
will continue to be primarily onshore with speeds mostly topping
out in the 10-15 knot range. Seas are expected to be 2-4 feet
across the nearshore waters and 3-5 feet across the outer
waters.

Sunday through Wednesday: A cold front will then approach from
the west and northwest on Sunday, moving through the waters
Sunday night. Expect a surge in winds and seas behind the front.
Small Craft Advisories should be needed across most of our
coastal waters Monday, and could persist across portions of our
waters into the middle of next week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$