Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Fri Apr 3, 2026 10:51 PM

AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1041 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions will continue through at least Saturday
  evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida
  Keys marine zones.

- A relatively drier pocket of air filtering in will help to keep
  significant rainfall at bay with only spotty, isolated showers
  expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
Outside of the seemingly neverending breezy conditions, the most
notable weather we have seen this evening was a cluster of showers
with embedded thunderstorms that crossed the Middle and Upper
Keys. At this time, our KBYX radar is detecting the decay of this
activity as it moves across the nearshore and offshore waters of
the Middle and Lower Keys, tracking northwestward into the
Southeast Gulf. This activity likely originated from low level
convergence over the water between the Miami area and Andros. The
18Z radiosonde launch from our friends in Miami showed ample
instability across the area, and little in the way of inhibition.
The 00Z launch this evening at KKEY showed some dry air intrusion,
but it was a little higher aloft, and showers were able to thrive.

CIMSS PWAT analysis depicts a pocket of reduced PWATs, around 1.25
inches, filtering in. Considering the upper level convergence
depicted on the SPC Upper Level Analysis, chances for pop up
showers overnight should remain low. Even though PWATs have been
trending downward, there may be enough in the low levels to
support one or two showers overnight anywhere across our forecast
area. We will go ahead and carry the slight chance of rain, 10
percent.

The tight pressure gradient associated with a healthy area of high
pressure over the North Atlantic will continue to linger across
the area, and there is no reason for our breezy conditions to
lighten up. No changes to the breezy forecast are needed at this
time.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys
local waters. From synopsis, expansive and strong high pressure
across the central North Atlantic will continue to dominate the
pattern through the weekend. This will continue to promote
moderate to fresh easterly breezes, occasionally strong in the
Florida Straits. Breezes will tend to peak overnight into the
morning hours, and lull in the afternoon. This high will begin to
retreat to the east as we head into the start of next week,
allowing for breezes to slacken for a couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
VFR conditions prevailing at both island terminals will see
occasional observations of MVFR CIGs due to diminishing shower
activity in the area. However, reduced categories are not expected
to prevail. Very isolated shower activity will continue to pop up
through the TAF period, but the low confidence related to location
means we will keep the current TAFs free of any showers or
thunderstorms. East surface winds near 15 to 20 knots will
continue to gust near 20 knots frequently while also occaisional
backing to the north northeast. Cross wind concerns are extremely
low as the northerly component wont be significant.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  73  82  73  83 /  10  10  20  10
Marathon  74  82  73  82 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$