Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sat Apr 4, 2026 1:36 AM

AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slow moving cold front will bring a chance of showers and
  thunderstorms today. A few heavier thunderstorms are possible
  this afternoon and evening.

- Much cooler and breezy conditions expected Easter Sunday, with
  rain showers possibly lingering into the morning and afternoon
  hours in our southern and coastal counties.

- Risk of moderate to strong rip currents today into the weekend.

- Gradual warm-up expected second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A rather dynamic pattern has set up over central CONUS tonight. As
of 11PM, a robust mid/upper low is centered over the Dakotas.
Ahead of the low exists a strong southwesterly and diffluent jet
aloft, providing the UL divergence to sustain a sfc low over Iowa.
The low`s trailing cold front extends down the plains into
northern Texas. The highly sheared and diffluent flow aloft is
inducing deep convection along the frontal boundary. This front
will push southward into our region on Saturday, increasing the
chance of showers and thunderstorms by afternoon (though some
scattered activity is expected in the morning). The most favorable
dynamics for deep convection will remain north of our region.
That being said, the flow aloft will not be short of embedded
vort maxes. The lift from these vorticity maxima and the sfc
convergence from the front, coupled with high PWATs pooling
northward from the Gulf could result in locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms. A severe thunderstorm capable of damaging wind
gusts cannot be ruled out. Localized flooding will also be a
possibility. Therefore, SPC has kept our area in a Level 1 of 5
severe weather threat, while WPC continues to place our region in
a Level 1 of 5 excessive rainfall risk. Regarding timing, the best
chance of heavier showers and thunderstorms is during the
afternoon hours across our northern counties, while areas farther
south experience their highest thunderstorm risk late in the
afternoon and into the evening.

Easter Sunday is unfortunately a tricky forecast. The front is
expected to push southward towards the coast and eventually
offshore. But lingering shower activity could extend into Easter,
especially south of I-10. Relative to our last update, I gave
PoPs a little bit of boost for areas south of I-10 on Sunday. This
is mostly due to the continued parade of vort maxes providing
lift to the Southeast Texas atmosphere. The other tricky aspect
about Sunday is the temperatures. With enough clouds and CAA, I
could see temperatures being 5-10 degrees colder in some areas.
For now, I`m going with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to near
70. Monday is looking mostly dry with highs in the 70s. But we
cannot rule out lingering showers near the coast and offshore.

As for the longer range, a strong Canadian high pressure system
will dig southward over E CONUS by Tuesday and Wednesday.
Sometimes you have to watch for overperforming backdoor cold
fronts in these situations. But at this time, we are thinking that
the high will mostly enhance LL onshore flow. This will tend to
gradually increase temperatures and humidity by the second half of
the week. In addition, more pesky vorticity maxima may add lift
to the equation by week`s end. Therefore, rain chances begin to
increase again by Thursday and especially Friday.

Self




&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Showers are beginning to cease this evening with ground
observations suggesting that precip is very light and or
evaporating before reaching the ground. MVFR CIGS should fill in
across SE Texas this evening. Model guidance has backed down
slightly on IFR potential, though it would still be prudent to
plan for at least a brief period of IFR CIGs during the early
morning hours of Saturday. Showers should develop again over the
area Saturday morning with coverage growing ahead of an
approaching cold front. This front should reach the College
Station area earlier in the afternoon, then the Houston area late
in the afternoon before pushing off the coast in the evening.
Thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of and along the front, some
of which could become severe, producing damaging wind gusts and
low visibility from heavy rainfall. Light showers are expected to
linger in the wake of the cold front, mainly along and south of
the I-10 corridor.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Moderate southeast flow and enhanced southeasterly swell/waves
should decrease somewhat as a cold front approaches today.
Scattered shower activity is possible today, with a better chance
of showers and thunderstorms this evening through Sunday as the
front pushes offshore. Winds will increase from the north to
northeast on Sunday, remaining elevated through Monday. Sustained
winds over 20 knots with gusts up to around 30 knots are expected,
especially over the Gulf. Seas will likely build as a result,
easily reaching 4-6 feet nearshore and 6-9 feet offshore. Seas may
be higher at times. The prospect of offshore thunderstorms
complicates Sunday`s winds forecast. Thunderstorms can result in
higher winds that extend far from the parent storm. Showers and
storms may linger into Monday.

Winds weaken and veer east by Tuesday, before veering southeast by
Wednesday. Southeasterly flow is expected to increase later in the
week. This would likely be accompanied by corresponding increases
in the swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  85  70  77  54 /  20  30  80  40
Houston (IAH)  84  72  82  60 /  20  20  70  70
Galveston (GLS)  81  73  79  65 /  30  10  40  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Saturday afternoon
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$