Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sat Apr 4, 2026 1:42 AM

AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
128 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast. There remains a low-end threat
for damaging thunderstorm wind gusts Sunday afternoon and
evening across SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Well above average temperatures continue through Saturday.

2) A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of showers or
thunderstorms Easter Sunday. There is a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk
for severe weather across SE VA/NE NC, with the main threat being
isolated damaging wind gusts.

3) Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly
below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze
headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with
widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 PM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above average temperatures continue through
Saturday.

High pressure at the sfc and aloft is centered well offshore this
afternoon, and the backdoor cold front that bisected the area last
night has retreated well to our north. Fog has lifted, with
widespread 70s-lower 80s across the area this afternoon under partly
cloudy skies. The well above average temperatures will continue
through Saturday. While highs will fall short of records today, some
records may be challenged on Saturday. A rogue shower/tstm cannot be
ruled out across the VA Piedmont Saturday aftn/evening, but
confidence remains low attm.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front brings a higher coverage of
showers or thunderstorms Easter Sunday. There is a Marginal (Level
1/5) Risk for severe weather across SE VA/NE NC, with the main
threat being isolated damaging wind gusts.

A low pressure system will advance NE across the Great Lakes Region
over the weekend and drag a strong cold front through the area late
Sunday afternoon into the first part of Sunday night. Showers and
isolated tstms will form west of the mountains along a pre-frontal
trough on Saturday, before crossing the mountains Saturday night-
Sunday AM. Guidance continues to show the precipitation arriving in
the Piedmont late Sunday morning, before crossing the remainder of
the area Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. Moisture return
ahead of the front will be meager, with dew pts only expected to be
in the upper 50s-around 60F Sunday afternoon ahead of the front.
With the timing of the convection, a rather large temperature
gradient for the highs on Sunday will be evident with the NW seeing
highs in the low to mid 70s and the SE in the upper 70s to near 80F.
Even with the meager moisture return, a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE
is possible across SE VA and NE NC. Though, the amount of
instability (and severe wx potential) will be dependent on how high
dew pts can get ahead of that front. Most of the models show little
to no instability with just showers and perhaps an isolated tstm,
though a minority of them (especially 12z RRFS) show lower 60s dew
pts ahead of the convection with a bit more potential for stronger
storms in the SE. With a largely unidirectional wind profile, some
speed shear, and poor lapse rates, isolated damaging wind gusts
would be the main threat if we manage to get a stronger storm or
two. SPC has maintained the Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for severe wx
in SE VA/NE NC. Areal average rainfall totals look to be 0.25-0.50"
with locally higher amounts in storms. While totals of ~1" are
unlikely, any rain is welcome, as a large majority of the area is
under a moderate drought. Additionally, ahead of and behind the
front, winds will be gusty to 25-30 mph during the day Sunday.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near
or slightly below average early next week with the potential for
frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday,
with widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast.

Temperatures will trend closer to average or below average early
next week in the wake of the front. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will
be in the 60s. A secondary front is progged to drop south through
the area Tuesday, providing a reinforcing shot of CAA. High pressure
builds to the north of the area by midweek which will result in
cooler conditions on Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to lower
60s due to the NE flow. There will be potential for frost or freeze
headlines both Tuesday night-Wednesday AM and Wednesday night-
Thursday AM for areas where the growing season has started with
temperatures falling back into the 30s. At this time, Wednesday
morning looks to have the highest potential for a freeze, with
widespread lows around freezing possible depending on how much
boundary layer decoupling we see.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 06z/04 TAF period. SW
winds of 5-10 kt are expected overnight, increasing during the day
to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Winds will likely remain ~10kt
overnight Saturday. Mainly CU are expected during the day with
increasing clouds from west to east late in the forecast period.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through Saturday night. There`s
a low chance of isolated showers Saturday afternoon and evening.
Widespread showers and possible flight restrictions are expected
Sunday along a stronger cold front. A few thunderstorms are
possible, and there is a low chance for a strong or severe
storm.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Primarily sub-SCA marine conditions continue through Saturday.

- SCAs likely Saturday night through Sunday night both ahead of and
behind a cold front.

- Another cold front will likely bring additional SCA conditions
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast this afternoon.
The backdoor cold front that resulted in some marine fog across the
northern tier of the marine area this morning has lifted N of the
area. The wind is generally SSW 10-15kt, and occasionally up to 15-
20kt across the coastal waters. Seas are 3-4ft, with ~2ft waves in
the Ches. Bay. The pressure gradient tightens some tonight but a SSW
wind should primarily remain 15-20kt for the coastal waters and 10-
15kt elsewhere, with occasional gusts up to 25kt out near 20nm. Seas
should mainly be 3-4ft. Wave guidance is showing up to 5ft out near
20nm N of Chincoteague. However, this does tend to run a little high
in SSW flow so no SCAs have been issued given the marginal nature of
the event. SCAs still appear more likely from late Saturday night
through Monday morning, S-SW winds increase to ~20 kt with gusts of
~25 kt by late Saturday night due to a tightening pressure gradient
ahead of an approaching cold front. That front crosses the waters
late Sunday afternoon through late Sunday evening, with a period of
low-end SCAs with N-NW winds likely Sun night-Mon AM with CAA
following the FROPA. A secondary cold front will likely bring
additional SCAs to the waters Tuesday night-Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs through Saturday, 4/4:

Richmond:           Record High:

Fri (4/3)           93/1963
Sat (4/4)           87/2011

Norfolk:            Record High:

Fri (4/3)           91/1963
Sat (4/4)           86/2025

Salisbury:          Record High:

Fri (4/3)           86/1963
Sat (4/4)           83/1999

Elizabeth City:     Record High:

Fri (4/3)           89/1967
Sat (4/4) 88/2025

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$