Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sat Apr 4, 2026 3:03 AM

AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
158 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 157 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- Widespread rainfall this weekend associated with a cold front

- Below-normal temps through mid-week

- Monitoring minor coastal flooding Saturday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Warm temperatures will continue one more day Saturday before the
cold front ushers in below normal temperatures from Sunday through
early next week. Rain chances will also return, but the forecast
unfortunately remains cloudy, despite being in the domain of the high
resolution models. The NBM is continuing to show storm total
accumulations on the higher end closer to 2" while the high
resolution models are showing storm total accumulations closer to
the 1" mark. High uncertainty remains in the forecast with just how
much rain we will see and who would get the most. Looking at the
high resolution models, the best chances to get thunderstorms and
heavier showers will be across the Brush Country and Rio Grande
Plains. Areas further east will have a lesser chance to see the
convective showers, though stratiform showers remain likely Sunday.
Still expecting generally 1-2" of rain areawide, but it appear like
the total accumulations might be closer to the 1" mark with only a
few areas seeing close to or just above 2" from Saturday through
Monday. The caveat to the forecast could mean some people might get
a more enjoyable less soggy Easter Sunday. Not to sound like a
broken record, but the next 24 hours will be crucial to see how the
atmosphere sets up prior to the arrival of the cold front.

A cold front is expected to sweep across South Texas and bring back
cooler temperatures. Along the with the cooler temperatures, rain
chances also return. Relative humidity values in the wake of the
front will remain above critical values. Therefore, elevated fire
weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

MVFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight through late this
morning with the front approaching the area. Some periods of showers
and thunderstorms will be likely along the front. VFR conditions
will peak through at times though this will likely be brief. Winds
are expected to be breezy as well especially near thunderstorms.
Conditions will deteriorate once again to MVFR conditions through
the evening into the night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeast breeze will develop Saturday
morning before the winds back to the northeast Saturday night in the
wake of the frontal passage. Winds Sunday will strengthen to fresh to
strong levels (BF 5-6) through Sunday night before relaxing to
moderate levels Monday night. Rain chances will increase Saturday
night (70-90% chance) through Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A cold front is expected to sweep across South Texas and bring back
cooler temperatures. Along the with the cooler temperatures, rain
chances also return. Relative humidity values in the wake of the
front will remain above critical values. Therefore, elevated fire
weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    85  61  68  58 /  40  60  70  70
Victoria          84  57  68  54 /  60  50  40  40
Laredo            89  58  64  56 /  70  80  80  70
Alice             89  60  68  56 /  50  70  70  70
Rockport          83  62  73  59 /  30  60  70  60
Cotulla           84  57  65  56 /  70  50  60  50
Kingsville        89  60  67  56 /  40  70  80  70
Navy Corpus       80  64  70  61 /  30  70  80  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$