Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sat Apr 4, 2026 3:27 AM

AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
310 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through the Weekend

- Locally Dense Inland Fog Inland this Morning and Sunday Morning

- Near Record Highs Possible Today and Sunday

- Scattered Thunderstorms Possible from Sunday Afternoon through Monday

- Strong Onshore Winds & Small Craft Advisory Conditions Next Week

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- High Risk of Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches This
  Weekend.

- Near Record Inland High Temperatures This Afternoon

- Patchy inland fog this morning and again Sunday Morning.

Today will be much drier than yesterday, especially inland where
numerous thunderstorms developed yesterday. A drying southerly flow
will stabilize convective potential with a persisting pattern
consisting of a surface ridge axis extending across the area.
Southeasterly flow and thermal trough inland will push another
breezy Atlantic sea breeze inland this afternoon with gusts up to 20
mph accompanying it. Though chances are limited (rain chance < 15%),
there is a chance for shallow, isolated showers developing along the
sea breeze late in the afternoon but thunderstorms are unlikely.

Southerly flow and deep mixing will boost inland temperatures toward
near record levels this afternoon with readings near 90 degrees.
Given the sea breeze the coast will be about 8-10 degrees cooler.

Tonight, upper flow pattern will buckle as an upstream upper trough
and attendant surface cold front approaches. This will lead to a
light southerly boundary layer wind and should mute fog development,
however, patchy and shallow fog still will be possible where surface
winds trend calm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

-Thunderstorm potential Sunday and Monday

-Near Record Highs Possible Sunday

Warm SW flow develops ahead of a cold front moving through the SE US
on Sunday. Daytime highs will rise into the mid-upper 80s with some
locations possibly reaching near record around 90 across north
central FL on Sunday afternoon. With the SW flow, the Gulf sea
breeze will shift well inland and merge with the Atlantic sea breeze
along the I-95 corridor in the late afternoon and evening. Best
chances for showers and storms will be along the I-95 corridor with
the merger and inland SE GA ahead of the front. Convection along the
front gradually wanes as it shifts southeastward through the area
Sunday night. Overnight lows on Sunday will range from the upper 50s
in SE GA to the low 60s in NE FL. The cold front will continue to
push through NE FL and into central FL on Monday. Scattered showers
will be present for much of the day along the front as it pushes
through, increasing to numerous across north central FL by the
afternoon hours. A few embedded thunderstorms will develop mainly in
NE FL due to the proximity to the frontal boundary. Cooler
temperatures on Monday with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s/60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

-Strong onshore flow next week, with elevated winds along the coast
and inland locations

A stronger upper level shortwave will cross over the SE US and shift
the front further southward on Tuesday. Showers across NE FL on
Tuesday gradually wane as the front moves away. Behind the front,
strong high pressure builds down along the southeastern seaboard
through Thursday bringing a surge of ENE winds. Wind gusts could
potentially reach 30-40 mph across coastal locations. Isolated to
scattered showers will develop in the onshore flow. Temperatures
will be below seasonable through the week with highs in the 70s and
lows in the 50s/60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Light easterly winds continue with VFR skies through the next few
hours. Winds may trend calm inland, allowing shallow ground fog
formation at inland airfields. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions and
southeasterly winds turning easterly with the breezy Atlantic sea
breeze is expected today. Similar to the last few days, anticipate
gusts around 20 knots with the sea breeze this afternoon. Winds will
gradually weaken and veer southeasterly to southerly after 00z.

&&

.MARINE...

Ahead of an approaching cool front, onshore winds will veer
southerly across the waters tonight through Sunday. The slowing
front will gradually move north to south through the waters Sunday
night bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms as the front
stalls through Monday. In the wake of the front, high pressure will
build to the north resulting in strengthening northeasterly winds
Monday night and the onset of a multiday period of strong onshore
winds throughout next week, likely requiring an extended Small Craft
Advisory. Much stronger high pressure will wedge along the coast
Wednesday resulting in further strengthening and potential for gales
and seas building potentially up to 15 feet across the waters. As
high pressure breaks away from the eastern seaboard late in the
week, onshore winds will begin to relax.

Rip Currents:

Latest buoys indicate a gradual decrease in wave heights over the
last 12 hours, with breakers generally between 2-4 feet this
afternoon. This afternoon will increase to a Moderate Risk of Rip
Currents as the sea breeze develops. Increasing longshore
winds/currents will increase breakers by a foot or so Sunday which
may be enough to tip the scales to a low-end High Risk of Rip
Currents, more so along the NE FL beaches. For now, Moderate risk of
rips are expected today and Sunday. It is very likely, that surf
will become life-threatening next week as strong onshore winds and
high surf develops.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- High Afternoon Dispersions North-Central Fl Today
- High Afternoon Dispersions Inland Se Ga Sunday

High pressure will shift further into the Atlantic today continuing
south-southeasterly winds. Slightly drier air today will drop inland
Min RHs into the mid-upper 30s and keep rain chances low. A few
showers will be possible over far interior SE GA late this
afternoon. Winds shift to southwesterly and increase ahead of an
approaching cold front on Sunday. Elevated mixing heights inland and
increasing south-southwesterly winds will result in generally good
dispersions with areas of high dispersions this weekend. The Gulf
sea breeze will shift far inland and merge with the Atlantic sea
breeze late Sunday afternoon bringing showers and storms. Beneficial
rain then returns with the frontal passage Sunday night into Monday.
Volatile fuel beds, due to the exceptional/extreme drought, combined
with breezy winds could lead to erratic fire behavior.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog potential each
morning this weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

April 4:
 - KGNV: 91/1974

April 5:
 - KJAX: 91/2017
 - KGNV: 91/2025

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  62  84  58 /  10  10  40  50
SSI  78  64  80  62 /   0   0  40  60
JAX  85  62  88  62 /   0   0  40  40
SGJ  83  63  85  64 /   0   0  40  40
GNV  89  60  89  62 /   0   0  20  20
OCF  89  62  88  62 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     GAZ154-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$