Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sat Apr 4, 2026 7:24 AM

AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
611 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slow moving cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms
  into the region. A few heavier thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon and evening.

- Much cooler and breezy conditions expected Easter Sunday, with
  rain showers possibly lingering into the morning and afternoon
  hours in our southern and coastal counties.

- Risk of moderate to strong rip currents today into the weekend.

- Gradual warm-up expected second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A rather dynamic pattern has set up over central CONUS tonight. As
of 11PM, a robust mid/upper low is centered over the Dakotas.
Ahead of the low exists a strong southwesterly and diffluent jet
aloft, providing the UL divergence to sustain a sfc low over Iowa.
The low`s trailing cold front extends down the plains into
northern Texas. The highly sheared and diffluent flow aloft is
inducing deep convection along the frontal boundary. This front
will push southward into our region on Saturday, increasing the
chance of showers and thunderstorms by afternoon (though some
scattered activity is expected in the morning). The most favorable
dynamics for deep convection will remain north of our region.
That being said, the flow aloft will not be short of embedded
vort maxes. The lift from these vorticity maxima and the sfc
convergence from the front, coupled with high PWATs pooling
northward from the Gulf could result in locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms. A severe thunderstorm capable of damaging wind
gusts cannot be ruled out. Localized flooding will also be a
possibility. Therefore, SPC has kept our area in a Level 1 of 5
severe weather threat, while WPC continues to place our region in
a Level 1 of 5 excessive rainfall risk. Regarding timing, the best
chance of heavier showers and thunderstorms is during the
afternoon hours across our northern counties, while areas farther
south experience their highest thunderstorm risk late in the
afternoon and into the evening.

Easter Sunday is unfortunately a tricky forecast. The front is
expected to push southward towards the coast and eventually
offshore. But lingering shower activity could extend into Easter,
especially south of I-10. Relative to our last update, I gave
PoPs a little bit of boost for areas south of I-10 on Sunday. This
is mostly due to the continued parade of vort maxes providing
lift to the Southeast Texas atmosphere. The other tricky aspect
about Sunday is the temperatures. With enough clouds and CAA, I
could see temperatures being 5-10 degrees colder in some areas.
For now, I`m going with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to near
70. Monday is looking mostly dry with highs in the 70s. But we
cannot rule out lingering showers near the coast and offshore.

As for the longer range, a strong Canadian high pressure system
will dig southward over E CONUS by Tuesday and Wednesday.
Sometimes you have to watch for overperforming backdoor cold
fronts in these situations. But at this time, we are thinking that
the high will mostly enhance LL onshore flow. This will tend to
gradually increase temperatures and humidity by the second half of
the week. In addition, more pesky vorticity maxima may add lift
to the equation by week`s end. Therefore, rain chances begin to
increase again by Thursday and especially Friday.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Generally MVFR ceilings, with some intermittent IFR, across the
region this morning along with some isolated showers dispersed.
Ceilings will gradually lift as the morning progresses and become
mostly VFR for a while. Shower & thunderstorm chances ramp up
this afternoon along and south of a cold front that`ll move into
northern parts of SE TX early in the afternoon, the metro area
early evening, then eventually off the coast. Some embedded cells
within the band of precipitation could be on the strong
side...with stronger wind gusts and visibility restrictions in
heavy downpours the main concern. Behind the front, look for
increasing N/NE winds and lowering ceilings (700-1000ft) as llvl
moisture becomes trapped near/below the frontal inversion. They
should eventually lift across northern parts of SE TX as cooler
air deepens, but metro/coastal areas might see higher end IFR-low
end MVFR for much of the night.  47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Moderate southeast flow and enhanced southeasterly swell/waves
should decrease somewhat as a cold front approaches today.
Scattered shower activity is possible today, with a better chance
of showers and thunderstorms this evening through Sunday as the
front pushes offshore. Winds will increase from the north to
northeast on Sunday, remaining elevated through Monday. Sustained
winds over 20 knots with gusts up to around 30 knots are expected,
especially over the Gulf. Seas will likely build as a result,
easily reaching 4-6 feet nearshore and 6-9 feet offshore. Seas may
be higher at times. The prospect of offshore thunderstorms
complicates Sunday`s winds forecast. Thunderstorms can result in
higher winds that extend far from the parent storm. Showers and
storms may linger into Monday.

Winds weaken and veer east by Tuesday, before veering southeast by
Wednesday. Southeasterly flow is expected to increase later in the
week. This would likely be accompanied by corresponding increases
in the swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  54  67  51 /  90  40  10  10
Houston (IAH)  83  60  69  56 /  80  70  40  10
Galveston (GLS)  78  65  71  61 /  50  70  50  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this
     afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$