Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sat Apr 4, 2026 1:27 PM

AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
116 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through the Weekend

- Locally Dense Inland Fog Inland Sunday Morning

- Near Record Highs Possible Today and Sunday

- Scattered Thunderstorms Possible from Sunday Afternoon through
Monday

- Strong Onshore Winds & Small Craft Advisory Conditions Next Week

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- High Risk of Rip Current Risk at the local Beaches This Weekend.

- Near Record Inland High Temperatures This Weekend.

- Patchy inland fog possible again late tonight.

Rest of Today: High pressure ridge axis from the Atlantic will
remain across the region with an East to Southeast steering flow and
continued above normal temps with highs around 80F at the Atlantic
beaches and well into the 80s over inland areas at near record
levels. Breezy East to Southeast winds will develop around 15 mph
behind the East Coast sea breeze with gusts to 20-25 mph at times.
Lingering moisture aloft with PWATs of 1.25-1.50" across inland SE
GA and the Suwannee Valley may be just enough to trigger a late day
and/or evening shower and/or thunderstorm in these areas, but much
less activity is expected versus yesterday. Otherwise partly to
mostly sunny and warm conditions will dominate the local area.

Tonight: High pressure ridge axis get shunted slightly southward
ahead of the approaching cool front pushing across the SE US states
which will slowly shift the steering flow towards the SW by morning.
Mostly clear skies are still expected after sunset and any far
inland isolated convection fades a few hours after sunset. Southeast
winds around 10 mph this evening become south and decrease to 5 mph
or less by the overnight hours, and while some patchy/areas of fog
are expected by the late night hours, the slight uptick in winds
towards morning should keep any dense fog localized in nature, so
dense fog advisory chances remain low at this time. Low temps will
fall into the lower 60s inland, with middle 60s expected along the
Atlantic coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm potential for both Sunday and Monday

- Near Record Highs Possible Sunday

- Cooler with breezy onshore flow developing Monday

Southwesterly flow develops on Sunday as high pressure pushes
further into the Atlantic, bringing warmer temps (widespread 80s)
all the way to the coast. More moisture will be available in the
low/mid levels Sunday, and therefore chances for showers and
t`storms will return as a result. Main areas to watch will be over
inland southeast GA with the diurnal heating closer to the
approaching frontal boundary, and closer to the I-95 corridor to the
coast where the Gulf sea breeze collides with the nearly pinned
Atlantic breeze. Upper dynamics are quite lackluster, though a few
strong storms cannot be ruled out with gusty downbursts the main
hazard as some pockets of dry air linger aloft. A few showers and
perhaps an isolated storm linger overnight Sunday Night as the
frontal boundary moves through, with veering flow towards the
northwest to north throughout the night. Morning lows will be mild
in the upper 50s to mid 60s as the front moves through, with high
temperatures for Monday in some areas possibly occurring around or
just after midnight Sunday Night.

Northeasterly flow strengthens Monday, especially near the coast and
across most of northeast FL under mainly cloudy and much cooler
conditions compared to the weekend. High pressure ridging will not
reach its peak on Monday as the cold front will slow forward
progress just south of the region. Therefore, this will result in a
breezy flow, but likely not enough for any wind advisory type
criteria. Still, sustained winds in the 10-20 range with gusts up to
30 mph will be expected for most by Monday afternoon. Chance to
likely PoPs will also be expected across central and southern
portions of the area with the slowing front and enough moisture
available, though plenty of cloud cover will limit instability and
therefore only a few isolated t`storms will be possible. As
mentioned above, much cooler highs mainly in the 70s will be
expected, though some upper 60s will be possible or areas closer to
the coast most exposed to the northeast. Min temps Monday Night will
run generally in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

-Strong onshore flow next week, with elevated winds along the coast
and inland locations

Pressure gradient increases for Tuesday as surface ridging
strengthens, and a shortwave trough pushing southeast aloft induces
surface low pressure well to our southeast. This trend likely
continues through most of the week as surface high pressure moves
very little through this time frame. The gradient looks to finally
start to relax by late week and heading into next weekend, but not
before several days of beach/marine hazards as well as windy
advisory potential near the coast and parts of northeast FL.
Temperatures overall trend below normal for the long term, though
starting to rebound closer to normal towards Friday/early next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
VFR conds with gusty E-SE winds this afternoon at 10-12G15-18 knots
which will fade around sunset (23-01Z) to 5 knots or so. Fog chances
remain highest at VQQ with potential LIFR conds, and likely MVFR
VSBYS at GNV towards morning, still mixed signals at the remaining
terminals and will just place 6SM BR in for now from 09-14Z. Skies
become VFR again late in the period as S-SW winds increase back to 8
to 10 knots in the 15-18Z time frame.

&&

.MARINE...


Ahead of an approaching cool front, onshore winds will veer
southerly across the waters tonight through Sunday. The slowing
front will gradually move north to south through the waters Sunday
night bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms as the front
stalls through Monday. In the wake of the front, high pressure will
build to the north resulting in strengthening northeasterly winds
Monday night and the onset of a multi-day period of strong onshore
winds throughout next week, likely requiring an extended Small Craft
Advisory. Much stronger high pressure will wedge along the coast
Wednesday resulting in further strengthening and potential for gales
and seas building potentially up to 15 feet across the waters. As
high pressure breaks away from the eastern seaboard late in the
week, onshore winds will begin to relax.

Rip Currents:

Latest buoys and beach reports showing surf/breakers into the 3-5
feet range late this morning and will upgrade both NE FL/SE GA
beaches to a high risk through the remainder of the holiday weekend
as more folks likely to enter the surf zone due to the near record
warmth in place. It is very likely, that surf will become life-
threatening next week as strong onshore winds and high surf develops
and a high risk of rips will continue as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- High Afternoon Dispersions Inland Se Ga Sunday
- Near Critical Min Rh Over Interior Ga Tuesday

High pressure will continue to slowly shift eastward further into
the Atlantic today with a southeasterly flow persisting. Slightly
drier air at the low/mid levels will limit shower/t`storm potential
to very isolated for far inland areas today, with this drier air
also resulting in minRH in the 30s across most areas west of about
the I-95 corridor. A frontal boundary will approach the area Sunday
and move through Sunday Night, which will bring more of a southwest
flow except near the coast and the return of shower & t`storm
chances, especially over inland GA and near the I-95 corridor to the
coast where the best convergence is expected. Areas of high
dispersions will be likely across inland southeast GA ahead of the
front where the strongest low/mid level winds are expected. Much
stronger high pressure builds in from the north for Monday and
remains persistent through mid week, returning breezy onshore winds
and mostly cloudy conditions with chances for showers the closer to
the coast you go. Despite the stronger flow near the surface, the
cloudiness and shower chances will lower expected dispersions
accordingly for at least Monday, trending upward thereafter towards
mid week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog potential each
morning this weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for Saturday 4/4:

KJAX: 90/2011
KCRG: 88/2012
KGNV: 91/1974
KAMG: 90/1963

Record High Temperatures for Sunday 4/5:

KJAX: 91/2017
KCRG: 91/2017
KGNV: 91/2025
KAMG: 90/2023

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  86  58  75 /  10  40  40  20
SSI  65  81  62  68 /  10  50  50  40
JAX  62  88  62  72 /   0  40  30  50
SGJ  64  86  64  73 /   0  30  40  60
GNV  61  89  62  78 /   0  20  10  60
OCF  62  89  62  81 /   0  30  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$