Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sat Apr 4, 2026 1:39 PM

AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
138 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front as it
  crosses the region on Sunday. A few of the storms may be strong.
  Beneficial rain will affect much of the region, but forecast
  rainfall amounts below 1 inch will offer no drought improvement.

- A prolonged period of high rip current risk will continue at all
  local beaches through this evening. Swim near a lifeguard, and heed
  the advice of beach flags.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1239 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Satellite-derived Precipitable Water (PW) imagery currently shows a
bullseye of moister PW values in the 1.5-1.6 inch range over our
Eastern Time Zone counties. Meanwhile, a nose of drier mid- level
air is currently located east of Florida. Southeasterly flow in
the 1000-700 mb layer will bring the moister bullseye to an area
extending from Marianna FL northward up the Chattahoochee River.
So that is where another round of air mass thunderstorms will most
heavily focus this afternoon. Meanwhile, the drier air currently
east of Florida will arrive by mid-afternoon over the southeast
Big Bend up to near Valdosta, so that is where afternoon thunder
is least favored.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1239 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A cold front will push south across the region during the day on
Sunday. It should readily bring a scattering a showers,
thunderstorms, and trailing stratiform rain to area along and west
of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers. East and southeast of there,
upper level support will quickly exit and start to orphan the front,
so convective coverage and rain chances will decrease as you head
into south-central Georgia and the FL Big Bend late Sunday and
Sunday evening.

Behind the front on Monday, a cooler and drier low-level air mass
will overspread the area. The fly in the ointment is that the
subtropical jet stream will become more active on Monday and
Tuesday, when two separate shortwave will zip east across the Gulf.
Mainly for our Florida and far south Georgia counties, this could
provided the lift needed to squeeze some light rain out of a thick
mid-level cloud deck. By Wednesday, the southern stream will mainly
be enhancing rain further south over the Gulf and the FL Peninsula,
but our continuation of 20-30 Pops over our FL counties accounts for
uncertainty with the northern extent of rain in a Day 5 forecast.

Larger scale lift from the southern jet stream will move out east of
Florida on Thursday, leaving us more confidently high and dry through
Friday. Building 500 mb heights on Friday will further cap the air
mass.

Low-level easterly flow will really pick up on Wednesday, as the
southern periphery of strong high pressure over the Great Lakes
region bridges south across the tri-state area. Ensemble mean 925 mb
winds suggest gusts of 25-30 mph are likely, with winds peaking on
Thursday. Meanwhile, the Gulf waters are likely to see a few days
worth of solid Small Craft Advisory conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Convection is developing in the FL panhandle into southeast AL.
Development will continue in this area with a general movement to
the north is expected. Isolated convection may also develop into
southwest GA through sunset. Convection will wind down after
sunset. Overnight, areas of fog and low stratus will develop
through the FL panhandle and southeast AL where flight conditions
will drop to LIFR generally from 08-14Z. A cold front will
approach our western counties towards the end of the TAF period
with the possibilities of showers accompanying the front though
the overall coverage of rain will be decreasing with time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1239 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Moderate southeast breezes will weaken and become light to gentle
from Saturday night through most of Sunday. A cold front will
settle south across the waters on Sunday evening, followed by
fresh and possibly strong north to northeast breezes through
Monday morning. Winds will clock around easterly by early Tuesday,
as high pressure moves off the North Carolina coast. The southern
periphery of strong high pressure will bridge south across the
waters late Tuesday, freshening the easterly breezes. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are likely on Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1239 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Another round of summer-like thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon, most heavily favoring southeast Alabama, the inland
Panhandle, and far southwest Georgia. A cold front will pass
south across the districts on Sunday afternoon. This will act as
a focus for more thunderstorms, though the front will encounter
weaker support for storms by the time its gets south across the
Big Bend region late Sunday afternoon. A drier air mass will
spread across the districts on Sunday night and Monday. Where
stronger transport winds and full sunshine can overlap across
inland areas, high dispersion would be expected on Sunday and
Monday.

Areas of morning fog are likely on Saturday and Sunday mornings,
mainly over the inland Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and
far southwest Georgia.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1239 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

Brief heavy downpours this afternoon between the Flint Valley on
the east and U.S. 231 in Alabama on the west could lead to short-
lived runoff issues in urbanized locales.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  62  85  58 /  20   0  30  30
Panama City   81  64  79  58 /  20   0  40  40
Dothan        84  62  75  53 /  60  20  80  40
Albany        84  63  80  53 /  40  30  60  40
Valdosta      86  63  86  59 /  20  10  30  40
Cross City    87  61  86  61 /  10   0  10  10
Apalachicola  75  64  78  61 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$