Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sat Apr 4, 2026 2:39 PM

AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
233 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All of the sections were updated.

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.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A cold front will bring increased rain chances Sunday
  afternoon into Monday morning, followed by cooler
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will bring increased rain chances
Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, followed by cooler
temperatures.

A broad mid-level trough accompanied by a cold front at the
surface will move through the eastern United States Sunday and
Sunday night. The cold front should be off the coast by late
Sunday evening. Fairly robust moisture return ahead of the front
will push PWs above 1.6" by Sunday afternoon. This, combined
with moderate diabatic and adiabatic heating, will yield pockets
of 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE. A band of fairly widespread showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move through the area Sunday
afternoon, then taper off from west to east Sunday evening. A
few showers could linger along the coast until the early Monday
morning hours. Mid-level lapse rates will be pretty weak (~5.5C)
and 0-6 km bulk shear will only be 20-25 kt, so organized severe
thunderstorms are not expected. However, a few pulse severe
thunderstorms are possible, with damaging winds the main threat.
Rainfall totals will be less than 0.50" in most areas.

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.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z TAFs: VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: There will be increased chances for
flight restrictions associated with FROPA Sunday into early
Monday.

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.MARINE...
Tonight: SE winds 5-10 kt this evening will veer around to the
SSW by daybreak Sunday. Seas will average 3-4 ft.

Sunday through Thursday: A cold front will then approach from the
west-northwest on Sunday, moving through the waters Sunday night
with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect a surge in winds
and seas behind the front early morning Monday, which will likely
necessitate the need for Small Craft Advisories across most of our
coastal waters throughout portions of the day. Surface high pressure
builds to our north Tuesday and could persist into the later half of
next week, leading to a period of breezy winds and hazardous
seas.

Rip Currents:
Sunday: The combination of gusty S to SW winds and a 3 ft SE
swell near 8 seconds will result in a Moderate Risk of rip
currents at all of our beaches.

Monday: The combination of gusty NE winds and a 3 ft SE swell
near 9 seconds will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents at
our GA beaches.

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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$