Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sat Apr 4, 2026 2:54 PM

AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
138 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slow moving cold front will be moving through the region
  through the day today and into tonight. A few heavier
  thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.

- Isolated coastal showers may linger into Sunday
  afternoon/evening, but chances are decreasing.

- Risk of moderate to strong rip currents through Sunday.

- Cooler, more seasonal weather Sunday through midweek, then a
  gradual warm-up expected for the second half of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

As of Noon, the anticipated cold front is knocking on the door of
the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods region, and we are anticipating on
it slowly pushing through the rest of SE Texas through late this
evening/tonight. Timing of the front looks to have it moving
through the Houston Metro/I-10 Corridor by 4-6pm, then to the
coast between 6-10pm. As the front pushes through the region, it
is expected to become a little more ragged with breaks in the
storms along the front. Light rain showers are also expected to
linger behind the FROPA for a few hours as well. Looking at
upstream observations, wind gusts associated with the storms
along the front have been mostly between 25-30mph with occasional
gusts to 40mph. This will continue to be the expected wind gusts
with the storms as it pushes through the region through the rest
of today. There is a chance for one or two strong to severe
thunderstorms to develop along the cold front this
afternoon/evening producing stronger wind gusts, but overall the
severe threat looks to be low. SPC has placed a Marginal Risk of
severe thunderstorms (level 1 of 5) across SE Texas today for that
isolated chance of stronger wind gusts. Rain totals to the north
of our area so far with the cold front has been around up to
0.5-1" with isolated higher totals between 1-3". We are
anticipating similar rain totals as the front pushes through SE
Texas. WPC does now include a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for
excessive rainfall across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods
region, with the rest of SE Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of
4). The reason for the Slight Risk is due to the fact that these
areas received 2-3" of rain on Thursday, so soils are still a
little saturated. Nevertheless, the most likely impact from the
rainfall will be minor urban and small stream flooding.

While the front does push off the coast tonight, lingering
moisture behind the front and passing weak disturbances aloft may
lead to continued isolated to scattered showers along the coast
through Sunday afternoon. However, CAM and ensemble guidance is
trending for less coverage/chances of showers by Noon on Sunday as
drier air begins to push further into SE Texas.

High pressure to our north will keep us rain-free through at
least Tuesday of next week, but then moist onshore flow returns by
Wednesday. This moist onshore flow and passing weak disturbances
aloft will lead to a slight chance to a chance of rain through the
second half of next week.

Looking at the temperatures across the cold front this afternoon,
we will see temperatures rising into the upper 70s to low 80s
ahead of the front and then crashing down into the 50s behind the
front. Then cooler, more seasonal weather will persist across the
area tonight through Tuesday before a gradual warm-up returns with
the return on southerly winds. High temperatures on Sunday will be
in the upper 60s to low 70s, and then low temperatures back into
the 50s. Clearer skies on Monday will lead to high temperatures
reaching into the low to mid 70s, but then cool down even more for
Monday night. Lows will be in the mid to upper 40s across the
Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, and the low to mid 50s
elsewhere. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday, although
overnight low temperatures will be around 5 degrees warmer as the
onshore flow begins. Then the slow warm-up begins with highs in
the upper 70s by Wednesday, and then low to mid 80s through the
remainder of the week.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Generally MVFR ceilings, with some intermittent IFR, across the
region this morning along with some isolated showers dispersed.
Ceilings will gradually lift as the morning progresses and become
mostly VFR for a while. Shower & thunderstorm chances ramp up
this afternoon along and south of a cold front that`ll move into
northern parts of SE TX early in the afternoon, the metro area
early evening, then eventually off the coast. Some embedded cells
within the band of precipitation could be on the strong
side...with stronger wind gusts and visibility restrictions in
heavy downpours the main concern. Behind the front, look for
increasing N/NE winds and lowering ceilings (700-1000ft) as llvl
moisture becomes trapped near/below the frontal inversion. They
should eventually lift across northern parts of SE TX as cooler
air deepens, but metro/coastal areas might see higher end IFR-low
end MVFR for much of the night.  47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Light onshore flow with occasional gusts to 15-20kt will persist
through this evening, but a cold front pushing through the coastal
waters tonight will usher in moderate to strong north to
northeasterly winds that will persist into Monday. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany the FROPA this
evening/tonight, with scattered showers persisting through Sunday
as moisture lingering behind the front. Northeasterly winds around
20-25kt with gusts to 30kt are expected late tonight/early Sunday
morning and persist through Monday morning/afternoon. There may
be a period of lower winds in the Bays Sunday afternoon, but wind
speeds are expected to pick up again Sunday night. These winds
will lead to building seas of 5-8ft with occasionally higher seas
possible. For these conditions, a Small Craft Advisory is in
effect beginning late tonight and continuing into the early
afternoon on Monday. There is a chance that the Bays may be able
to be dropped out of the Advisory Monday morning, but the coastal
waters may get extended into

There remains a moderate to high risk of strong rip currents
through Sunday afternoon, so the Rip Current Statement will
continue.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  54  68  52 / 100  40   0   0
Houston (IAH)  82  60  71  56 /  70  80  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  78  65  72  61 /  40  60  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 1 PM CDT Monday for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$