Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sat Apr 4, 2026 4:21 PM

AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
319 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 227 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- Widespread rainfall this weekend associated with a cold front

- Much cooler tonight through Monday

- Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding
  tonight through Sunday Morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Medium to high rain and thunderstorm chances remain in the
forecast for this afternoon through Sunday with the approach of a
frontal boundary into our area. This front currently extends from
an Eagle Pass to Seguin to near La Grange line, and will be
entering our CWA in the next couple of hours.

Deep moisture convergence ahead and along the boundary, moderate
instability, and little capping will allow for a few of these
storms to become strong to severe at times as the boundary sweeps
into our area this evening. SPC has the majority of South Texas
under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
through early Sunday, with strong winds and large hail being the
primary threats. In addition, locally heavy rainfall will be
of concern as well tonight through Sunday with WPC including all
of South Texas under a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall (level
1 of 4). Although our soils are critically dry, high rainfall
rates in a short time could still result in nuisance flooding
mainly over low lying or urban areas. The most likely scenario
will bring beneficial rainfall for portions of the Coastal Plains
and Brush Country, with rainfall totals around 1-2 inches with
isolated amounts to 3 inches. Though, flash flood guidance is very
high (2.5-3.5 inch/hr), and most of the rain should be absorbed
by the soils.

It will be much cooler tomorrow and Monday, with drier conditions
inland through much of next week. Highs tomorrow (Easter Sunday)
are forecast to range from the mid 60s out west to the low 70s
along the coast, with overnight lows in the upper 40s to upper
50s areawide. Onshore flow will resume Tuesday, bringing back
slightly deeper moisture and warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A mixture of VFR to MVFR conditions will prevail across area
terminals through the cycle. A cold front will move through the
area this late afternoon into the evening hours resulting in
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms through Sunday.
Winds will be out of the south to southeast ahead of the boundary,
then shifting north to northeastward and becoming gusty at around
20-25 knots in its wake.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Winds will shift to the northeast tonight and strengthen to fresh
to strong levels (BF 5-6) into Sunday morning in the wake of a
passing cold front. Winds are forecast to relax to moderate levels
Sunday night into Monday, with the flow shifting onshore Tuesday
night and becoming gentle. Rain chances will increase tonight
(60-90% chance) through Sunday, before gradually diminishing to a
low to medium chance (20-50%) Monday into Monday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A cold front is expected to sweep across South Texas this
afternoon into the evening hours and bring back cooler
temperatures. Along the with the cooler temperatures, rain
chances also return. Relative humidity values in the wake of the
front will remain above critical thresholds. Therefore, elevated
fire weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    59  67  56  68 /  60  80  70  30
Victoria          57  69  53  72 /  60  40  40  10
Laredo            57  63  55  67 /  80  80  70  20
Alice             58  67  54  70 /  60  80  70  30
Rockport          62  72  58  74 /  60  70  60  30
Cotulla           56  66  54  70 /  60  70  50  20
Kingsville        58  66  55  67 /  70  80  70  30
Navy Corpus       63  69  60  70 /  70  80  80  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM CDT Monday for
     GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$