Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 1:39 AM

AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1229 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Key Messages:

 * The Weather Prediction Center includes all of our County
   Warning Area within a Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) of isolated
   flash flooding for Sunday.

 * An additional 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain is likely across most
   of the area Sunday.

 * A medium risk of rip currents continues through tomorrow
   afternoon and marine/coastal conditions are likely to become
   adverse tomorrow and into the beginning parts of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

In the wake of the cold front tonight, cooler temperatures are
forecast Sunday through the middle of next week. An overrunning
pattern looks to keep rain chances elevated through the day Sunday
with rain chances beginning to drop off Monday. The thunderstorm
potential looks to decrease behind the front, as limited elevated
instability drops off rapidly Sunday morning. However, deep mid-
level moisture could still support heavy rainfall, with PWAT
values ranging from 1.5-2 inches through much of the day Sunday.
Probabilistic NBM still supports an additional 0.5  1.5 inches of
rain Sunday.

Low temperatures are forecast to fall into the 50s to low 60s
tonight High temperatures Sunday will likely range from the low
60s to mid 70s, with lows Sunday nigh in the 50s across most of
the area. A gradual warming trend will likely raise afternoon
highs back into the 80s by mid-week.

Rain chances look to increase again near the end of the week as an
upper level shortwave moves across South Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

MVFR to VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24
hours, as the passage of a cold front produces backing winds and a
sustained chance of convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 7 AM to 1 PM Sunday, but
may need to be extended or replaced with Small Craft Should
Exercise Caution headlines. Strong northerly winds and elevated
seas will begin to improve by Monday, with generally favorable
conditions forecast to return by Tuesday morning and continue
through the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             75  58  70  58 / 100  80  60  20
HARLINGEN               73  55  71  54 /  90  80  50  10
MCALLEN                 72  59  72  58 /  90  80  30  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         68  55  69  56 /  90  80  30  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      74  65  69  66 /  90  80  60  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     76  59  71  60 /  90  80  50  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Monday
     for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$