Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 2:12 AM

AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1255 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and breezier today with a chance of showers (mostly south
  of I-10).

- Small Craft Advisory for the Bays and Gulf through Monday
  morning due to hazardous winds and seas.

- Risk of moderate to strong rip currents through Sunday.

- Gradual warm-up expected for the second half of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Saturday`s showers and storms are departing to the east while
cooler, breezy conditions filter southward into SE Texas in the
wake of a cold front. Average afternoon highs are near 80 degrees
this time of year. We will be cooler than normal today, with
afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s (perhaps cooler
in some areas if cloud cover is thick enough). Despite the
departure of the aforementioned showers/storms, there remains a
parade of mid/upper vort maxes that are streaming into the region
from Mexico. South Texas should have sufficient moisture and lift
to keep rain chances elevated for much of Sunday. For SE Texas, I
suspect that we`ll have lift and sufficient mid/upper moisture
for rain. However, LL moisture will be lacking as dry air advects
southward behind the front. HRRR and 3KM NAM show this well,
featuring a fairly active simulated radar activity while the sfc
QPF below is rather tame.....a bark bigger than the bite
situation. That being said, I cannot promise you that we won`t
have at least some rain shower activity, especially for those
south of I-10 and especially near the coast. Waves of mid/upper
disturbances will keep a chance of showers across our southern and
coastal zones into Sunday night. PoPs range from ~20% near I-10
to 30-50% at the coast. Near Matagorda Bay and areas offshore,
PoPs are higher (60-70%) due to higher LL moisture. Sunday night
is looking a tad chilly, with lows ranging from the upper 40s in
our northernmost zones to near 60 at the coast. Worth mentioning
that guidance varies significantly regarding the northern extent
of the rain today.

Temperatures are expected to skew a little cooler than normal
through mid-week. But the return of deep onshore flow will
gradually increase both temperatures and humidity as the weak
progresses. By Thursday and Friday, many locations could be back
above 80 degrees with dew points well into the 60s. Large scale
lift is expected to enter the picture toward`s end, increasing the
chance of showers and thunderstorms by Thursday and especially
Friday.

Self






&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Line of tsra will continue moving E to SE this evening. The line
of storms is currently over southern and eastern portions of the
Houston metro area. As the storms exit, IFR/MVFR cigs and gusty N
to NE winds will become the primary concern this evening and
tonight. These winds will likely continue through Sunday while
cigs gradually improve during the morning hours. Terminals south
of I-10 and especially near the coast could hold on to sub-VFR
cigs into the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Strong north to northeast winds and building seas are expected
today. Winds could weaken somewhat Sunday afternoon before
increasing again late in the evening into Monday morning. There is
a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms through Sunday
night and possibly into Monday. Winds may gust near 30 knots at
times, with offshore seas easily reaching 6-9 feet. Winds and
seas should decrease by Monday afternoon. Expected a gradual
veering of the winds, with east to southeast flow by the second
half of the week. We are monitoring the potential for a moderate
to strong fetch across the northern Gulf later in the week that
could enhance waves and swell. Based of some of the latest trends,
it`s possible that the current wave height forecast is too
conservative for Thursday into next weekend.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  50  72  47  73 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  53  74  52  75 /  10  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  60  71  63  72 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 1 PM CDT
     Monday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$