Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 2:30 AM

AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
222 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through the
  entire week; High, rough Surf Expected Tuesday through Friday

- Locally Dense Inland Fog this Morning over North Central
  Florida

- Widesly Scattered Thunderstorms Along I-95 and near record
  high temperatures this Afternoon

- Strong Onshore Winds & Small Craft Advisory Conditions Monday
  to Tuesday night; Gales Possible Wednesday

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Isolated Thunderstorms Along the I-95 Corridor late this afternoon.

- High Risk of Rip Current Risk at the local Beaches This Weekend.

- Near Record Inland High Temperatures.

- Patchy inland fog possible for north-central FL early Monday.

Quiet conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the
early morning hours as southerly boundary layer winds keep
significant, dense fog from developing. Though dry and quiet over
land, convergence near the gulf stream is expected to generates
scattered showers well offshore through the morning.

As a cold front approaches today the prevailing steering flow will
shift southwesterly this today. That shift will push the gulf breeze
toward the Atlantic coast this afternoon which will be a focus for
widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along the I-95
corridor around 4-6 PM. In addition to the sea breeze merger
convection, showers and a few isolated storms may develop farther
inland across SE GA in the weakly unstable warm sector along a
prefrontal trough. Good mixing and southwesterly flow push afternoon
highs toward daily record territory again with widespread highs in
the upper 80s to 90 degrees.

Overall, confidence in extensive coverage of showers or strong
t`storms along the sea breeze merger is low given the lingering dry
air aloft, limited dynamics, and a marginal instability profile this
afternoon. Deeper moisture (PWAT above 1.5") will stay pooled along
the incoming front to the northwest and likely won`t reach the
forecast area in time to take advantage of the diurnal heating. Any
convective activity along the sea breeze merger will push off into
the Atlantic around sunset.

As afternoon storms move into the Atlantic, the cold front will push
into SE GA bringing a thicker cloud deck and elevated and remnant
showers along its edge. Enough elevated instability will be
available to keep the potential for widely scattered elevated
showers to develop with the fropa this evening before chances fade
by midnight. The front will slow it`s forward speed as it pushes
through the forecast area tonight and that may allow time for patchy
fog development across north-central FL early Monday morning. Lows
will dip back down into the upper 50s as drier/cooler arrives in SE
GA while thick cloud cover and the slowing front delay the cooler
air from arriving in NE FL until after sunrise Monday, so expect
lows somewhere in the low/mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm potential Monday and Tuesday

- Cooler with breezy onshore flow developing Monday

The cold front will be south of the area by Monday morning, then
stalling over central Florida as another front slowly approaches
from the north on Tuesday. Enough moisture will remain over the area
on Monday and Tuesday to prompt scattered to numerous showers mainly
over northeast Florida both days. Instability will be low due to
enhanced cloud cover and will limit numerous thunderstorm activity,
but cannot rule out a few storms each afternoon and evening.
Following the frontal passage, the local pressure gradient will
increase as high pressure sits to our northeast, bringing breezy
onshore winds through the week. Wind gusts Monday and Tuesday will
likely stay below Wind Advisory criteria, but gusts will approach 30-
35 mph near the immediate coast and St. Johns river basin areas.
After a hot weekend, temperatures will cool down Monday and Tuesday,
highs generally in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

-Strong onshore flow next week, with elevated winds along the coast
and inland locations

Strong onshore winds continue through the end of the week, with
gusts Wednesday and Thursday along the Atlantic coast approaching
Wind Advisory criteria (40 mph). Several days of gusty northeasterly
winds will create beach and marine hazards, with conditions
beginning to improve Saturday as the pressure gradient weakens. Rain
and isolated storm chances each day will primarily be over coastal
northeast Florida. Temperatures will be below normal Wednesday and
Thursday with mostly cloudy skies, and will warm up to near normal
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Patchy MVFR fog continues at VQQ and should develop at GNV by 08Z
with tempo restrictions for IFR/LIFR fog 09Z to 13Z. VFR conditions
return by 14Z. With VFR skies, winds will increase to 6-11 knots
from the southwest initially. As the Atlantic sea breeze develops
winds at KSSI/KSGJ/KCRG will shift southeasterly around 19z-21z.
Interaction along the sea breeze may promote showers and potential a
few thunderstorms during the early evening hours. Given low but
nonzero confidence, have elected to add PROB30 TSRA groups to
KSSI/KSGJ. A weak cold front will then push into terminals around
midnight.

&&

.MARINE...

Ahead of an approaching cool front, onshore winds will veer
southerly across the waters Today. The slowing front will gradually
move north to south through the waters Sunday night bringing showers
and isolated thunderstorms as the front stalls through Monday. In
the wake of the front, high pressure will build to the north
resulting in strengthening northeasterly winds Monday and the onset
of a multi-day period of strong onshore winds throughout the
upcoming week, likely requiring an extension to the current Small
Craft Advisory. Much stronger high pressure will wedge along the
coast Wednesday resulting in further strengthening and potential for
gales and seas building potentially up to 15 feet across the waters.
As high pressure breaks away from the eastern seaboard late in the
week, onshore winds will begin to relax.

Rip Currents:

Increasing southerly winds will lead to a High risk of rip currents
today at area beaches as surf builds toward 3-5 feet. Fast-moving
longshore currents are also expected. Throughout the week ahead,
surf zone will become hazardous with a High Risk of strong rip
currents each day from Monday through Friday and high, rough surf
developing by Tuesday. Given the battering surf, minor beach erosion
is possible after days of rough surf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- High Afternoon Dispersions Inland Se Ga Sunday
- Critically Low Min Rh Over Interior Ga Tuesday

A frontal boundary will approach the area Sunday and move through
Sunday Night, which will bring more of a southwest flow except near
the coast and the return of shower & t`storm chances, especially
over inland GA and near the I-95 corridor to the coast where the
best convergence is expected. Areas of high dispersions will be
likely across inland southeast GA ahead of the front where the
strongest low/mid level winds are expected. Much stronger high
pressure builds in from the north for Monday and remains persistent
through mid week, returning breezy onshore winds and mostly cloudy
conditions with chances for showers the closer to the coast.
Critically low minRH values are forecast Tuesday for portions of
inland southeast Georgia, and will improve Wednesday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog potential Sunday morning
for north central Florida.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for Saturday 4/4:

KJAX: 90/2011
KCRG: 88/2012
KGNV: 91/1974
KAMG: 90/1963

Record High Temperatures for Sunday 4/5:

KJAX: 91/2017
KCRG: 91/2017
KGNV: 91/2025
KAMG: 90/2023

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  58  73  52 /  40  40  20  10
SSI  82  61  69  61 /  50  50  40  30
JAX  89  61  71  57 /  40  30  50  40
SGJ  87  64  74  61 /  30  40  70  70
GNV  89  62  76  56 /  20  10  60  60
OCF  88  62  81  60 /  20  10  60  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ450-452-470-472.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ454-474.

&&

$$