Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 3:00 AM

AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
246 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section was updated for the 06z TAFs. A Small Craft
Advisory has been issued for all marine waters outside of the
Charleston Harbor from Monday morning through Tuesday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A cold front will advance through the region this afternoon
  bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms.

- 2) Cooler temperatures expected for the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will advance through the region this
afternoon bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms.

A mid-level trough extended southward from the Great Lakes into the
Ohio Valley region will swing eastward today, while at the surface a
cold front pushes through the southeastern states. Ahead of the
approaching cold front moisture is expected to build into the
region, with PWATs increasing to 1.5 to 1.6" by the afternoon.
Additionally, dew points are forecast to surge into the mid to
upper 60s, which combined with daytime highs in the low to mid
80s, will yield a rather muggy feeling day. A band of showers
and thunderstorms is expected to arrive with the front this
afternoon. Given the pre-frontal environment, with ML CAPE
values around 400-700 J/kg and shear around 2-30 knots, a strong
to severe thunderstorm is possible, especially across the
Charleston Tri-County where instability is forecast to be the
strongest. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat. Significant
rainfall is not anticipated, with amounts generally topping out
around 0.5". After the front pushes through in the evening hours
some lingering weak showers are possible along the coastal
counties into the overnight.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Cooler temperatures expected for the work week.

Notably cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front, as a
wedge of high pressure sets up off the northeast coast into
Wednesday. Afternoon highs in the upper 60s to 70s are expected for
Monday, rising slightly into the lower to mid 70s on Tuesday before
the high pressure wedge sets in. Wednesday will see temperatures
back down into the upper 60s to lower 70s, slowly rising into the
80s by Saturday as the wedge erodes.

Mostly dry conditions are expected Monday through Wednesday, though
can`t rule out some weak/light showers for areas in/near McIntosh
county in southeast Georgia. Areas well west of the I-95 corridor
may see an elevated fire danger risk as dry relative humidities near
30% and breezy winds develop during the afternoon hours Monday
through Wednesday, further aided by the ongoing drought
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will initialize at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV and prevail into the
afternoon. A cold front is progged to push through the region later
this afternoon, with a line of showers and thunderstorms
accompanying it. Gusty SW winds will develop this morning at all
terminals, gusting to around 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
possible at KCHS/KJZI. Best chances for a shower/tstorm are at
KCHS/KJZI where a TEMPO group has been introduced from 21-24Z today
for TSRA. Have only included mention of VCSH at KSAV as the line of
showers will weaken further southward. Showers could linger across
the coastal counties of SC into tonight so VCSH is in place at
KCHS/KJZI beginning at 00Z and prevailing through the remainder of
the 06Z TAF period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Improving conditions behind the cold
front by Monday morning. VFR expected into the extended.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: A cold front will approach from the west this
afternoon, with an associated line of showers and thunderstorms late
this afternoon and this evening. Some of these thunderstorms could
produce gusts >34 knots and Special Marine Warnings may be required.
In the wake of the cold front a surge in wind gusts and building
seas are forecast, with Small Craft Advisories in effect by daybreak
Monday.

Monday through Thursday: Winds are expected to remain breezy as
surface high pressure moves in behind the cold front bringing gusts
up to 30 knots, continuing the Small Craft Advisories into at least
Wednesday morning. Will likely see wind gusts subside below the 25
knot threshold late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday, though wave
heights above 6 feet will continue. Expect winds to increase again
on Tuesday as a strong surface high pressure wedge sets up along the
northeast coast into Wednesday, which will likely require an upgrade
to Gales for all zones with the Charleston Harbor likely needing at
least a Small Craft Advisory by Wednesday morning.

Rip Currents:
Today: The combination of gusty S to SW winds and a 3 ft SE swell
near 8 seconds will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents
at all beaches.

Monday: The combination of gusty NE winds and 3 to 4 ft SE swell
near 9 seconds will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the
Georgia beaches.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ350-352.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ354-374.

&&

$$