Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 3:39 AM

AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
233 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 232 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Rain to continue Easter Sunday and into Monday morning

- Below-normal temps through mid-week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A southwest  to northeast oriented band of moderate to heavy has
been fairly stationary across the northern counties for the past few
hours. Mesonet sites are reporting rainfall totals in the 1-1.75"
range, with the best coverage over Live Oak County. This rain is
established within the 925 mb frontogenesis zone where training is
ongoing. Additionally, we are monitoring a large MCS in Mexico which
is approaching the Rio Grande Plains. This area of convection is
occurring out ahead of a potent shortwave that has been moving
across Mexico and expected to cross South Texas later tonight into
Sunday. The KCRP VAD Wind Profile is showing a veering profile
through the depth of the atmosphere with backing winds aloft
indicative of the approaching shortwave. All this to say we have a
good chance for much needed rainfall over South Texas in the next 12-
18 hours. The latest CAM guidance is showing that a widespread area
of 1-2" if rain could still fall across the region during the
aforementioned period with locally higher amounts near 3" possible.
Rain chances will begin to taper off Monday morning as we dry out
throughout the week.

Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday and into mid-week
before returning to near normal values late in the work week. Above
normal temperatures could be back in the forecast by the end of next
weekend. Friday and Saturday will both feature low chances (15-25%)
for showers with the best chances across the Coastal Plains and
Victoria Crossroads.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

As the front cleared the coast a few hours ago residual showers and
thunderstorms have been left in its wake. We will continue to see
showers and thunderstorms through Sunday evening. This will lead to
periods of MVFR to IFR conditions (CIGs and VSBYs). Winds will be
elevated especially near convection with gusts around 25-30 knots
expected through the evening. Have kept PROB30s for potential lower
IFR to LIFR conditions through the day specifically Sunday
afternoon. Will continue to monitor, though as we progress into the
afternoon rain should become more stratiform and lighter.&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) northeast breeze is expected tonight
strengthening to a strong breeze (BF 6) Sunday morning and continuing
through early Monday morning. Winds will gradually diminish Monday
weakening to moderate breeze Monday night. High rain chances (70-
90%) will continue through Sunday night decreasing to a medium
chance (40-60%) Monday before tapering off Monday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A cold front is currently sweeping across the region which will
bring back below normal temperatures. Along the with the cooler
temperatures, rain chances also continue through Sunday night.
Relative humidity values in the wake of the front will remain above
critical thresholds. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are
not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    66  56  70  54 /  80  70  30  10
Victoria          70  52  74  50 /  40  30  10   0
Laredo            63  55  70  55 /  90  60  20  10
Alice             65  55  71  52 /  80  70  20  10
Rockport          71  57  74  59 /  70  60  30  10
Cotulla           65  54  72  53 /  70  40  10   0
Kingsville        65  55  68  53 /  90  70  30  10
Navy Corpus       68  60  70  61 /  80  70  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM CDT Monday
     for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$