Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 6:57 AM

AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
643 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany a cold front as
  it crosses the region today. Severe thunderstorms are not
  expected. Showers and thunderstorms will start to fall apart
  after crossing the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers.

- Strong easterly winds are expected from Tuesday through
  Thursday, with the strongest wind most likely coming on
  Wednesday. On the Gulf, there is a medium chance (50 percent) of
  eventually needing a Gale Warning. On land, wind gusts of 30-40
  mph may eventually necessitate a Wind Advisory.

- A prolonged period of high rip current risk will continue at all
  local beaches through tonight, followed by a break in the high
  rip current risk on Monday and Tuesday. Swim near a lifeguard,
  and heed the advice of beach flags.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A cold front is currently pushing south through central Alabama,
accompanied and preceded by showers, a little embedded thunder, and
some trailing stratiform rain. The front will continue to push south
today, passing across the service area from mid-afternoon through
early evening. As the front first enters southeast Alabama and the
western FL Panhandle, it will still be accompanied by abundant
showers and a few thunderstorms. There are no indications of severe
thunderstorms, with only weak instability and deep-layer shear of 15-
25 knots forecast.

As the front crosses the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers, convection
will shrivel up, as it encounters drier mid-level air and a loss of
upper support (larger scale lift).

Behind the front on Sunday night, northerly winds will usher in a
cooler and drier air mass. By sunrise on Monday morning,
temperatures in the 50s will be common, with lower 60s clinging to
the SE Big Bend region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The subtropical jet stream across Mexico and the Gulf will
consolidate and become more active for a few days starting Monday.
As the first shortwave zips east across the Gulf, models blossom
stratiform rain out of a mid-level cloud deck, mainly over the SE
Big Bend and the Forgotten Coast, with modest ensemble support for
rain spreading all the way north to a Panama City-to-Tallahassee-to-
Valdosta line. There is strong consensus for no rain Monday for
places like Dothan and Albany. With any rain emanating from a mid-
level cloud deck and drier air near the surface, there could be
quite a bit of visible virga beneath cloud bases Monday.

The next shortwave on Tuesday will simply pass too far south to
bring rain chances anywhere north of the Forgotten and Nature
Coasts.

The last of the southern stream shortwaves will a negatively tilted
feature which pass on Wednesday. Upper diffluence in advance of
this feature should produce enough lift within the mid-level cloud
deck to squeeze out some rain. Better lift and moisture will
still be passing across the Gulf, so there is question about how
far north and inland the rainfall could extend. Rain chances with
this forecast package will actually trend upward more solidly into
the 20- 30 percent range. That is still a low chance, but the
trend is encouraging for those wanting even a little rain.

One thing favoring a little rain will be development of strong
easterly low-level flow on Wednesday. Convergence along small scale
speed surges could help with lift.

Speaking of the easterly wind, Wednesday will be windy. At sunrise
Wednesday, GEFS ensembles show 925 mb easterlies most likely in the
35-40 knot range. As thermal mixing gets underway later in the
morning, this could easily translate to surface wind gusts of 35-40
mph. The consensus of MOS forecasts on Wednesday shows sustained
winds of 18-20 knots, while 90th percentile values from the EPS
ensemble are in the 23-25 knot range at many of our airport sites.
Parts of the region could eventually need a Wind Advisory on
Wednesday if guidance continues to look this way. Over the Gulf
waters, about half of the GEFS ensemble members show winds that
would support a future Gale Warning.

From Thursday through Saturday, a 500 mb ridge axis will develop and
strengthen from the Middle Gulf to the Carolinas. The mid-levels
will dry out and warm up under the influence of large-scale
subsidence. The cap of warm and dry air aloft will eliminate rain
chances from Thursday evening onward. After spending Tuesday through
Thursday with near normal temperatures, the ridging will boost
temperatures above normal on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Areas of dense fog are affecting the DHN and ECP terminals this
morning. This will make way for scattered showers and
thunderstorms later this afternoon as a cold front begins to make
its way through the region from the northwest to southeast. MVFR
conditions can be expected when thunderstorms pass through. Winds
will become northwesterly, then northerly behind the frontal
passage tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A cold front will push south across the waters this evening,
followed by a shift to fresh and strong north to northeast breezes.
Winds will turn easterly on Tuesday as high pressure moves east of
the Carolinas. Stronger high pressure will bridge in from the north
on Tuesday night, freshening the easterlies from Tuesday night
through Thursday. During that time, Small Craft Advisory conditions
are expected, and there is a low to medium chance of gales.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A cold front will pass across the districts today from mid-
afternoon through early evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms
ought to accompany the front at first, but then convection will
shrivel up after the front passes the Flint and Apalachicola
Rivers. North to northeast winds behind the front tonight will
usher in a cooler and drier air mass for Monday.

Light rain is possible on Monday and again on Wednesday, mainly over
our Florida and far south Georgia districts, as upper disturbances
zip east across the Gulf.

Look out for an increase in wind that is coming up from late Tuesday
through Thursday. Peak winds are forecast on Wednesday, when
easterly gusts are most likely to hit the 30-40 mph range.

Otherwise, areas of fog are expected this morning west of the
Flint and Apalachicola Rivers. On Monday morning, patchy fog will
be confined to the northern Nature Coast and Lower Suwannee
Valley.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 145 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

No flooding is expected for the next 7 days.

Forecast rainfall through Monday ranges from just a few hundredths
of an inch to about one-half inch, with embedded pockets of 1-2 inch
totals further west in the Panhandle and Southeast Alabama. This
will be well short of amounts needed to produce flooding, and it
will be short of amounts needed for meaningful drought relief.

For more local drought information and statements, visit the
following websites:
weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought
weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  58  72  55 /  20  30  30  20
Panama City   79  57  71  56 /  50  40  30  20
Dothan        77  51  69  50 /  90  30  10  10
Albany        82  53  71  50 /  70  40  10   0
Valdosta      87  59  73  55 /  30  30  30  20
Cross City    86  62  77  55 /  10  10  50  50
Apalachicola  78  60  69  58 /  10  40  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ007>013-
     108-112.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ120>124-
     142>144-155.

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$