Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 1:24 PM

AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1222 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1212 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Key Messages:

 * The Weather Prediction Center includes all of our County
   Warning Area within a Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) of isolated
   flash flooding for Sunday.

 * An additional 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain is likely across most
   of the area Sunday.

 * A medium risk of rip currents continues through tomorrow
   afternoon and marine/coastal conditions are likely to become
   adverse tomorrow and into the beginning parts of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

In the wake of the cold front tonight, cooler temperatures are
forecast Sunday through the middle of next week. An overrunning
pattern looks to keep rain chances elevated through the day Sunday
with rain chances beginning to drop off Monday. The thunderstorm
potential looks to decrease behind the front, as limited elevated
instability drops off rapidly Sunday morning. However, deep mid-
level moisture could still support heavy rainfall, with PWAT
values ranging from 1.5-2 inches through much of the day Sunday.
Probabilistic NBM still supports an additional 0.5  1.5 inches of
rain Sunday.

Low temperatures are forecast to fall into the 50s to low 60s
tonight High temperatures Sunday will likely range from the low
60s to mid 70s, with lows Sunday nigh in the 50s across most of
the area. A gradual warming trend will likely raise afternoon
highs back into the 80s by mid-week.

Rain chances look to increase again near the end of the week as an
upper level shortwave moves across South Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Conditions currently range from IFR at KBRO and KHRL to MVFR at
KMFE along with light to moderate rain and north-northwesterly
winds of 15-20 knots, gusting to around 25 knots. Intermittent
showers continue through tonight, but progressively become lighter
in intensity, with prevailing conditions expected to become IFR
overnight and periods of LIFR continuing. IFR to MVFR skies are
likely again tomorrow along with lighter northerly winds, though
breezy at times. Light showers or mist may continue into tomorrow
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 7 AM to 1 PM Sunday, but
may need to be extended or replaced with Small Craft Should
Exercise Caution headlines. Strong northerly winds and elevated
seas will begin to improve by Monday, with generally favorable
conditions forecast to return by Tuesday morning and continue
through the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             58  71  58  77 /  90  60  10  20
HARLINGEN               55  72  54  79 /  90  50  10  10
MCALLEN                 59  73  58  81 /  80  40   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         55  70  56  78 /  70  20   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      65  70  66  74 /  90  60  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     59  71  60  78 /  80  60  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$