Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 2:27 PM

AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
113 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and breezier today with a slight chance of light rain
  (mostly south of I-10).

- Small Craft Advisory for the Bays and Gulf through Monday
  morning due to hazardous winds and seas.

- Gradual warm-up expected for the second half of the week along
  with the chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026


Lingering moisture left behind from yesterday`s cold front and
passing weak upper level disturbances has led to overcast skies
and cool temperatures across SE Texas. Stratiform light to
moderate showers have been lingering over our southern counties
this morning, and this activity is expected to slowly move up the
coast through the afternoon and evening. Not anticipating much, if
any rainfall, north of I-10, and should completely exit the coast
through by midnight tonight.

Then the main story the next few days will be the cooler weather.
Overnight low temperatures tonight will drop into the low to
mid-50s for much of the region with the Piney Woods dropping into
the upper 40s. Clearing skies on Monday will allow for daytime
temperatures to rise into the low to mid-70s, but these same clear
skies will allow for even cooler weather Monday night. Expect
upper 40s to low 50s for most areas except the Houston Metro and
the coast where temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 50s.
Similar high temperatures are expected on Tuesday, but onshore
flow begins to return Tuesday night leading to overnight lows
increasing by 5-10 degrees. This southerly flow will lead to
continued warming weather with highs back into the low 80s and
overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s (or low 70s) by week`s end.

In addition to the increase in temperatures, there will be an
increase in moisture with a chance of isolated streamer showers as
early as Wednesday. A passing upper-level disturbance will
increase rain chances Thursday into Friday with continued chances
persisting into the weekend.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Ceilings are gradually lifting as deeper, cooler air filters in
from the north. Metro & coastal areas should trend toward VFR as
the morning progresses (though overcast mid-upper level decks
should prevail). NNE winds are in the process of increasing and
expect some gusts at or slightly above 20kt during the day. Some
mid-upper level disturbances pass overhead today & tonight and
could see some returns on radar. With the exception of offshore
areas, recent model guidance suggests the vast majority of it
should mainly be virga inland considering the dry subcloud layer.

47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Moderate to strong offshore winds will persist through Monday
morning leading to building seas to 5-8ft (occasionally higher).
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all waters through
Monday morning, although it may be extended for portions of the
Gulf waters into Monday evening depending on how quickly the seas
decrease. Scattered to widespread light to moderate showers will
persist through the coastal waters tonight before exited to
the east.

Light northeasterly winds will persist through Monday night
before becoming easterly on Tuesday. Onshore flow returns by
midweek and will persist through next weekend. Rain chances also
return by the second half of the week.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  50  72  48  74 /  10  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  54  74  53  76 /  20  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  61  72  64  74 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$