Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 2:39 PM

AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
125 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 101 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Key Messages:

 * Light to moderate rain continues into this evening and tonight
   along/east of US-281, gradually becoming light or coming to an
   end.

 * A High Risk of Rip Currents and minor coastal flooding persist
   through at least tomorrow afternoon, with conditions along the
   coast and over the marine gradually improving throughout the
   week.

 * Below average temperatures prevail through tomorrow night and
   then slowly warm to slightly above average later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

In wake of the cold front that passed through last night and early
this morning, a mid-level disturbance passing over south Texas
continues to lead to areas of light to moderate rain across the
coastal counties and into the Middle RGV, with the heaviest
rainfall rates along the immediate coastline. At the time of this
writing (12:41 PM), nearly all of our region has received at least
0.75-1.00 inches of rain in the past 24 hours, with the bulk of
the heavier rain totals along and west of US-281, where strong the
thunderstorms produced 2-4 inches yesterday evening ahead of and
along the cold front. A few locales may have surpassed 5 inches
in the deepest of convection. Additionally, a few areas east of
US-281 have also received at least 1-1.5 inches, or more,
including locations in and around Harlingen, Sarita and closer to
the coast. Much of this rain has been very beneficial as our
region was in an ongoing Moderate, Severe and Exceptional (D2, D3
and D4) Drought.

As the mid-level shortwave kicks off to the east throughout the
remainder of today and into tomorrow, showers are expected to
become light or come to an end, leading to an additional 0.25 to
0.50 an inch of rain along/east of US-281, though the immediate
coastline could receive up to a 0.75 of an inch, or more. For the
time being, WPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for isolated
flash flooding today for all of Deep South Texas, with the
exception of the Rio Grande Plains and western portions of the
Northern Ranchlands. Yet, this afternoon`s Excessive Rainfall
Outlook is likely to remove most, if not all, of the Marginal Risk
across our region.

Chances of rain continue to drop off throughout tomorrow, down to
near 10% or less by Tuesday morning, as a 1040-1045 mb surface
high over southern Canada spills drier air southward through the
Plains. Yet, additional weaker shortwaves aloft and lingering
coastal troughing could keep a low (15-30%) chance of isolated and
brief light showers across portions of the RGV and/or along the
coast into Wednesday. Wednesday night, another slightly stronger
disturbance aloft passes arrives over the CWA. Diurnal instability
coupled with increasing low-level moisture could result in a low
to medium (30-50%) chance of rain during the daytime on Thursday
and Friday, followed by a low (15-30%) chance into next weekend.

Northerly winds persist through tomorrow night, remaining breezy,
with gusts up to 25 mph, or higher, through this afternoon as a
reinforcing shot of lower (925 mb) level high pressure continues
southward through the region. Additionally, overcast skies remain
socked in across the region into tomorrow, keeping highs in the
60s today, which is on the order of 20-25 degrees cooler than
yesterday. Temperatures fall to the 50s tonight and tomorrow
night, rising to the 60s/70s tomorrow afternoon, which is still
10-15 degrees below average. Temperatures moderate and warm
further Tuesday onward, becoming slightly above average later in
the week as southeasterly winds return later in the week and
temperatures rise into the lower 90s, possibly next weekend.

A High Risk of Rip Currents continues through tomorrow afternoon as
winds remain elevated over the Lower Texas coastal waters, resulting
in waves of 4-6 feet and periods of 7 seconds, making swimming
conditions dangerous. Medium, or possibly high, risks of rip
currents are likely to continue into the middle of the week. Minor
coastal flooding remains possible over the next few days as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Conditions currently range from IFR at KBRO and KHRL to MVFR at
KMFE along with light to moderate rain and north-northwesterly
winds of 15-20 knots, gusting to around 25 knots. Intermittent
showers continue through tonight, but progressively become lighter
in intensity, with prevailing conditions expected to become IFR
overnight and periods of LIFR continuing. IFR to MVFR skies are
likely again tomorrow along with lighter northerly winds, though
breezy at times. Light showers or mist may continue into tomorrow
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Fresh to strong northerly to northeasterly winds and moderate (6-7
ft) seas continue into tomorrow morning, maintaining a Small Craft
Advisory until 1 PM tomorrow afternoon. Marine conditions improve
throughout the remainder of tomorrow and into Tuesday as winds
become gentle moderate, turning easterly on Tuesday and Wednesday
and southeasterly on Thursday along with moderate (3-5 ft) seas.
Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible next weekend as
a pressure gradient tightens. Chances of rain gradually diminish
tonight through tomorrow night though a low (15-30%) chance lingers
into Wednesday. Low to medium (30-50%) chances of rain return
Thursday into Friday accompanying a disturbance aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             58  71  58  77 /  90  60  10  20
HARLINGEN               55  72  54  79 /  90  50  10  10
MCALLEN                 59  73  58  81 /  80  40   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         55  70  56  78 /  70  20   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      65  70  66  74 /  90  60  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     59  71  60  78 /  80  60  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$