Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 2:48 PM

AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
230 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A cold front will advance through the region this afternoon
  bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms.

- 2) Cooler temperatures expected for the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will advance through the region this
afternoon bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Visible satellite and KCLX radar indicated a sea breeze along the
coast, with the best push inland north of the Edisto River. This
afternoon, observations indicated temperatures in the 80s with
dewpoints around 70s along the sea breeze. SPC mesoanalysis
indicates that SBCAPE will likely range around 2000 J/kg, with
pockets of 2500 J/kg. The 12Z KCHS sounding indicated a DCAPE value
in excess of 950 J/kg, these values may decrease to around 800 J/kg
this afternoon. Provided effective bulk shear around 30 kts,
moderate instability, and some lingering DCAPE, the environment
should support some strong storm clusters, especially north of
Colleton County along the sea breeze. One or two of these storms may
produce localized wind gusts in excess of 45 mph this afternoon.
Ragged showers and isolate thunderstorms may remain over the
forecast area this evening into the late night hours. The sfc cold
front should advance across SE GA/SC late tonight. Behind the front,
northeast winds with gusts between 20-25 mph should advect cooler
and drier air across the forecast area. Temperatures by sunrise
Monday should range in the mid to upper 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cooler temperatures expected for the work week.

Notably cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front,
as a wedge of high pressure sets up off the northeast coast
into Wednesday. Mostly dry conditions are expected Monday
through Wednesday, though a few showers along the lower GA coast
aren`t out of the question. An elevated fire risk is expected
across inland areas Tuesday and Wednesday as dewpoints mix out
during the afternoon and breezy NE winds occur.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Prior to the 18Z TAFs, visible satellite and KCLX radar indicated a
sea breeze, especially north of the Edisto River. The sea breeze
should slowly drift inland this afternoon. Given temperatures in the
80s and dewpoints around 70 degrees, SBCAPE could see some pools of
2500 J/kg late this afternoon. A least scattered showers and
thunderstorms should develop along the sea breeze between 21-24Z,
highlighted with TEMPOs at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. The cold front is
timed to sweep across the terminals late tonight. The TAFs will
indicate wind veering from the northeast by 9-10Z, with gusts around
20 kts expected at KCHS and KJZI.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. Breezy NE winds Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
This afternoon into tonight, showers and thunderstorms will develop
near a sea breeze and approaching cold front. Some of these storms
may drift off the coast through this evening, posing some risk for
gusty winds and lightning. The cold front is timed to push offshore
late tonight, followed by a surge of gusty northeast winds. Small
Craft Advisories outside the Charleston Harbor will be in effect by
daybreak Monday.

A persistent northeast gradient will occur Monday into Saturday
as high pressure builds to the northwest. The strongest winds
are expected Tuesday into Wednesday when we could see Gale force
winds over most of the marine area. Seas will steadily build
through mid week, with some swells reaching 15-16 ft beyond 40
nm from shore late Wed. For now we have Small Craft Advisories
for all waters except Charleston Harbor running through
Saturday, though we`ll likely need to replace these with Gales
at some point as we get closer to the Tue/Wed time frame.

Rip Currents:

Increase NE winds and building swells will result in an elevated
rip current risk much of the upcoming week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     AMZ350-352.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     AMZ354-374.

&&

$$