Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 2:57 PM

AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
239 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Easterly breezes will continue to gradually slacken over the
  course of tonight and tomorrow, but Small Craft Should Exercise
  Caution across the Florida Straits through this evening.

- Although passing showers are possible, significant rainfall is
  not likely for the next few days.

- There is increasing confidence for above normal shower and
  possible thunderstorm chances for Tuesday and Wednesday. Low to
  medium confidence in potential breezy conditions on Tuesday
  night.

&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with FEW to SCT
skies around FL025. Occasional MVFR CIGs may be observed due to a
nearby concentrated cloud field, but long standing impacts aren`t
expected as these obs will be short lived and infrequent. Opting
to keep TAFs dry, but a pop up shower may brush past either
terminal at any point in the period. East surface winds near 15
knots will continue to slacken and only occasional gusts near 20
knots may be seen during the first half of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026
Looking at the synoptic scale, one can see a well developed low
pressure system over eastern portions of Canada. This low, its
associated mid level trough, and the eastward movement of the
Atlantic high are why winds are slackening across the Keys. Mid
level winds are also veering southeasterly, which is bringing
additional moisture towards the Keys. The climatological chance
for showers is around 10 percent in April, and there is high
confidence in a chance of showers through Tuesday. Thunderstorms
may be able to form starting on Monday as well.

Past Tuesday morning the confidence in the forecast drops
significantly. Yesterday, statistical models indicated a prolonged
breezy, possibly windy, period across the Florida Keys this week.
Last night and this morning`s model runs instead show a delay in
breezy conditions until Friday. What happened? A cold frontal
boundary located over the eastern United States will meander east
to southeast towards South Florida this week. While prior models
suggested faster movement of the front, the recent model runs
stall it over South Florida until Thursday to Friday, which means
the pressure gradient does not tighten across the Keys. This also
means a stalled source of lift would be located just north of the
island chain. The resulting forecast shows higher chances of
showers midweek, and statistical guidance suggests PoPs as high
as 60 to 70 percent. However, this is not a confident forecast at
this time. Model runs may shift back towards a faster front
tomorrow. Either way, the Keys may get some much needed rainfall
this week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 957 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until winds decrease across
the Florida Straits. From synopsis, breezes will continue to
slacken while an Atlantic high weakens and moves farther east.
There is high confidence that light to gentle breezes will persist
through Tuesday. A high pressure system descending into the
Northern Plains on Tuesday night will push a frontal boundary
south towards the Florida Keys. Considerable uncertainty surrounds
where the front will stall, and when breezes will freshen later
this week. In contrast to the wind field, there is high confidence
for a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms mid
week. &&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$