Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 3:09 PM

AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
255 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing rain chances through midweek.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The surface high pressure ridge is being suppressed southward this
afternoon as a cold front moves into the southeast states. This has
shifted the low level flow to a more southerly direction across the
area, and eventually southwest across the Nature Coast later this
afternoon. Some deeper moisture is spreading north and this combined
with daytime heating and the sea breeze will lead to more scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms. Highest rain chances in our area
still look to be over the central interior south into inland
southwest Florida during later this afternoon and evening.
Convection will wind down this evening with partly cloudy skies
overnight.

On Monday, the front will move into the northern parts of the
forecast area and then slow down as it drifts across the central
peninsula Monday night and eventually into south Florida by late
Tuesday. During this time deep moisture in the vicinity of the
front will move across the region allowing scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms to develop at almost anytime. Highest
rain chances will be over the eastern half of the Florida
peninsula thanks to the increasing northeast flow around strong
high pressure to the north moving into the eastern states.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the strong high to the north will move
off the northeast U.S. coast with a tight pressure gradient across
the peninsula leading to gusty east to northeast winds across the
area. There will continue to be enough moisture for scattered to
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms on these days with the
highest PoPs over the interior and eastern half of the Florida
peninsula.

Friday into next weekend the surface high will drift out into the
western Atlantic Ocean, but continue to ridge into the southeast
states. The flow will diminish some as the pressure gradient
relaxes with some drier air moving into the area. Still looks
like there could be enough moisture around for isolated to
scattered convection Friday and Saturday, and then only isolated
PoPs over the southern interior and southwest Florida Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. This convection is still
expected to mainly affect LAL, PGD, FMY, and RSW, as the sea breeze
will push inland during this afternoon. Southeast to south winds
will be near 10 knots, except shifting to westerly near the coast as
the sea breeze moves inland. Winds diminish and shift to northeast
to east overnight and remain rather light through Monday
morning.&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A cold front will move southeast into the waters Monday and Monday
night, with wind speeds increasing to Exercise Caution levels, then
Advisory levels by Tuesday morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions
are expected to persist through Thursday and will possibly increase
to Gale Warning criteria at times. Rain and thunderstorm chances
will also increase through the first half of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A cold front will move into the area Monday and then slow down as it
moves south across the region and into south Florida by Tuesday
night. Winds will be rather light tonight into Monday morning. Winds
will increase behind the boundary from the north to northeast and
become gusty Monday afternoon from around Interstate 4 northward,
and by Tuesday everywhere. Building moisture will prevent Red
Flag conditions from developing, and will also bring increased
rain chances through much of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  85  66  77 /  10  40  70  60
FMY  68  86  67  81 /  40  50  70  70
GIF  67  86  65  76 /  50  70  70  70
SRQ  68  84  66  77 /  10  40  70  60
BKV  62  85  60  75 /  10  50  70  60
SPG  72  86  70  79 /  10  30  70  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$