Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 3:15 PM

AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
159 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 157 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Small Craft Advisories in effect tonight through Tuesday
and likely will need to be extended for much of the water through
most of the week.

- That prolonged period of strong easterly winds over the
north-central and northeastern Gulf increase the coastal flood threat
on east facing shorelines by Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

It has been a dreary Easter Sunday for much of the region but the
rain is slowly exiting the area and we even seeing a few breaks
in the clouds across the northwest. The cold front has moved into
the coastal waters and we are already beginning to see drier air
slide in from the north. Winds are also starting to slowly pick up
behind the front but we will see those ramp up more this evening
especially over the coastal waters.

As for tonight...impacts will be fairly minimal but we will still
have the potential for more light rain across coastal SELA. The cold
front will be well into the Gulf by tonight but with weak a sfc flow
taking shape over the western Gulf there will be light overrunning
showers across the northwestern and north-central Gulf tonight. This
activity looks like it will push far enough north to get onshore
over coastal SELA. That said this will be rather light and have no
real impacts.

Flow aloft is currently zonal over us with the base of the trough
axis north of our area. As it trough starts to slowly dig east-
southeast tonight and the ridge to our west builds we will move
under weak northwest flow tomorrow and into Monday night. At the sfc
high over the Plains will slowly slide east tomorrow however, it
will merge with a much larger area of high pressure coming out of
Canada by tomorrow evening before it starts to turn east towards
the Great Lakes Tuesday morning. The first area of high pressure
will eventually lead to our winds slowly becoming more northeasterly
and should lead to them relaxing a little but this will be short
lived as we head into Tuesday and especially the second half of the
work week. Slightly cooler LL temps and drier air will make for a
more mild day tomorrow with highs slightly below normal. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The extended portion of the forecast will be a little more impactful
as we could see a few weak disturbances push across the region
and it looks like we will have some coastal flooding issues to
deal with. No changes made to the NBM/WPC forecast.

Tuesday will be generally quiet with s/w ridging aloft and high
pressure dominating the region. Winds will already start to shifting
more towards the east-northeast and maybe even out of the east by
late afternoon. Winds will be a touch lighter at first but the
combination of increasingly onshore flow and being right around the
peak of spring tide Tuesday we could already start seeing minor
coastal flooding issue Tuesday but as we move into Tuesday night and
through the rest of the work week this concern will grow.

As the large dome of high pressure slides across the Great Lakes
towards the east coast we will see a strong easterly fetch set and up
over the north-central and northeastern Gulf Wednesday and into the
weekend. Not only will that fetch setup and be persistent it will be
rather strong at times.  The combination of all of that and in the
peak of the spring tide is going to lead to coastal flooding along
east facing shores. Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas will likely lag
by a day or so given that water will have to make it through the
Rigolets which takes times but with the durations of those easterly
winds once the water does get into the lakes it will take a while to
get out. Coastal Flood Adv`s may be needed as early as Tuesday but
it looks quite likely we will need Coastal Flood Warnings for
portions of the coast by Wednesday.

Outside of the coastal flooding issues, we will see a warming trend
through the week. However, we will also see a shot of rain Wednesday
and perhaps again Friday night. Wednesday appears to be the best
chance for rain in this forecast. We will see a surge of moisture out
of the east-southeast while a s/w move across the Lower MS Valley.
This slug of moisture looks like it will get pushed far enough west
to mainly impact the southwestern half of the CWA while coastal MS
may remain dry. This s/w quickly slide east with s/w ridging
Thursday but it will be relatively weak and there may still be some
afternoon showers. The next disturbance will already be moving
through TX Thursday night and should push through the area Friday
night. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Rain continues to impact a few terminals but is slowly moving out
however, low clouds are still impacting are terminals at this
time. This is leading to a mix of IFR and MVFR cigs. Terminals
across the northwest like BTR and MCB and even HDC are seeing the
cigs improve with cloud bases around 1500. Elsewhere cigs are
still bouncing around 700 and 1200 ft. Cigs should improve later
this afternoon and this evening for most of the area however, HUM
will likely see overrunning style rain moving in out of the Gulf
overnight which will continue to impact it. The only other
terminals that may see some impact from that could be MSY and NEW
but the rain may remain just south of those terminals. As for
vsbys these will only fall as rain impacts the terminal. Not
anticipating any LLWS issues. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The cold front entered our coastal waters this morning and should
clear them this afternoon. Winds behind the front are quickly
veering around out of the north and were slowly starting to pick up
already. By this evening winds will increase to 20 kt and should
peak out just under 25 kt for most waters overnight. As broad high
pressure tries to nudge south winds slowly shift to northeast and
begin to relax over the tidal lakes and most of the Sounds Monday
afternoon and night. The open waters and especially outer waters
will see northeast to east-northeast winds likely remain around 20
kt with higher gusts through Tuesday. Impacts, though already
occurring, will begin to pick up Tuesday night. A large dome of high
pressure will slide east out of the Great Lakes on Tuesday and
towards the east coast by Wednesday morning. This will result in a
tightening of the pressure gradient leading to continued flags
across all of the coastal waters. /CAB/

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Monday
     for GMZ530-532-534.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Tuesday
     for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Monday
     for GMZ532-534.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Tuesday
     for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$