Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 3:24 PM

AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
319 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. The Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) continues for SE portions of the area. The main
threat remaining isolated damaging wind gusts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong cold front brings a high coverage of
showers or thunderstorms today. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5)
for severe weather across the SE portions of the area, with the main
threat being isolated damaging wind gusts.

2) Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or
slightly below average early next week with the potential for
frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be
Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible away
from the coast.

3) Depending on the amount of rainfall received, there may be
potential for heightened fire weather concerns early this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front brings a high coverage of
showers or thunderstorms today. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5)
for severe weather across the SE portions of the area, with the main
threat being isolated damaging wind gusts.

A low pressure system will lift NE of the Great Lakes today dragging
a strong cold front through the area late this afternoon into the
overnight hours. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected across the area today. The timing of the showers and
isolated thunderstorms remains similar from previous forecasts,
expecting convection to begin in NW portions first late this morning
then reaching the SE portions by early afternoon. Good moisture
returns to the area ahead of the front (dewpoints in the low to mid
60s) will allow a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE across the eastern half
of the area. Additionally, the SE will see higher temperatures as
the timing of the front is later with highs in the upper 70 to near
80F. This higher instability/better surface heating could help
storms to become strong to severe in the SE portions of the area.
SPC maintains the Marginal Risk (level 1/5) with the front in the SE
portions of the area where the conditions are more favorable. The
main threat with any storm would be isolated damaging winds gusts,
as wind profiles look to be largely unidirectional with poor lapse
rates.

Rainfall totals look to be around 0.25-0.50" on average. High values
up to 1.00" is possible in the SE from higher amounts in storms.
While totals of ~1" are unlikely, any rain is welcome, as a large
majority of the area is under a moderate drought. Additionally, a SW
wind will gust to 25-30 mph in advance of the showers/tstms.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures behind the cold front will trend
near or slightly below average early next week with the
potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks
to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible
away from the coast.

Behind the cold front today, temperatures will trend closer to
average or below average this week. Highs on Monday will be in the
mid 60s (lower 60s at the coast) and mid 50s N to mid 60s S on
Tuesday, as a secondary front drops south through the area Tuesday.
providing a reinforced shot of CAA. Strong high pressure builds to
the north of the area by midweek which will result in cooler
conditions Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s due to
the NE flow. There will be potential for frost or freeze headlines
both Tuesday night-Wednesday AM and Wednesday night-Thursday AM for
areas where the growing season has started. For reference, the
growing season has started 4/1 for all but the far NW counties,
which start 4/11. At this time, Wednesday morning looks to have the
highest potential for a freeze, with widespread lows around freezing
possible, with even upper 20s possible in the Piedmont, depending on
how much boundary layer decoupling that occurs. Temperatures
gradually moderate back to near seasonal averages late in the week
while dry conditions persist.


3) Depending on the amount of rainfall received, there may be
potential for heightened fire weather concerns early this week.

With the two cold fronts and high pressure building over the area
this week, there is potential for heightened fire weather concerns
as dewpoints drop significantly and minimum RH values reach to the
mid 20s to mid 30s for portions of the area. However, winds are not
expected to be more than 15-20 mph early this week. With the large
majority of the area under a moderate drought, there may be some
concern for fire weather depending on the amount of rainfall
received today.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Sunday...

Showers and a few tstms are moving into the region in advance
of a cold front. Primarily VFR ahead of the showers with a SW
wind of 15-20kt gusting to 25-30kt, and locally higher at ORF
and ECG. Showers move through RIC/SBY through 21-23z, ORF/PHF
through 00-02s, and ECG through ~04z, with the best chc of tstms
at PHF, ORF, and ECG. Brief strong westerly wind gusts are
possible with tstms. However, tstm wind gusts will likely not be
much higher than the synoptic gusts occurring as of 18z.
Periodic MVFR cigs are expected the aftn and then prevailing
later this aftn and evening at most sites with the exception of
RIC. Brief IFR vsby is expected in heavy rain. The wind will
generally diminish to WSW 8-12kt after convection passes and
once stratiform rain develops. A wind shift to N/NW is expected
behind the cold front, with gusts to ~20kt at ORF and ECG. Dry
and VFR conditions return tonight into Monday. A NW wind of
5-10kt Monday morning will become W in the aftn.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail Monday night through Friday. A
secondary dry cold front will cross the area Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and Coastal Waters
  into early tomorrow, the Lower James until later this evening.

- Strong high pressure building in behind another cold front
  will likely bring additional SCA conditions Tuesday night into
  Wednesday.

A cold front is approaching the local waters this afternoon with
latest analysis indicating it moving into central VA. SW winds
ahead of the front are elevated thanks to a tight pressure
gradient. Latest obs show 15 to 25 kt with gusts 25 to 30kt.
Gusty showers and storms ahead of the front are also producing
wind gusts 34-50kt+ and pea sized hail, for which SMWs are being
issued. Should see a 5-6 hour break in the winds behind the
front this afternoon until late tonight as winds turn to the W
and then NW. NW winds then increase to 15-20kt over the bay and
20-25kt over the coastal waters tonight through early tomorrow
morning. Did just go ahead and extend the existing SCAs for the
bay into tonight despite the break instead of trying to time
exactly when the southern surge stops and the northern surge
begins within a 6 hour period. Meanwhile for the coastal waters,
the SCAs extend into tonight due to seas staying up around 5ft.

Winds quickly drop off tomorrow morning as transient high pressure
slides in overhead. Becoming breezy as winds turn back to the SSW
Monday evening ahead of another (dry) cold front early Tuesday
morning, then breezy out of the north behind it Tues. An extra push
of CAA and pressure rises are expected as strong high pressure
settles into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. NE winds during
this period are forecast to increase back to SCA levels for at least
the southern coastal waters and lower Ches. Bay. The onshore surge
should also build seas to at least 5ft for the southern waters as
well.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631-650-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634-656-
     658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633-
     635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ638.

&&

$$