Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 3:57 PM

AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
348 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday,
  especially in areas that have received little to no rainfall
  over the past few days and extreme to exceptional drought
  persists. Any outdoor burning is highly discouraged.

- Strong easterly winds are expected from Tuesday through
  Thursday, with the strongest wind most likely coming on
  Wednesday. On the Gulf, there is a medium chance (50 percent) of
  eventually needing a Gale Warning. On land, wind gusts of 30-40
  mph may eventually necessitate a Wind Advisory.

- A prolonged period of high rip current risk will continue at all
  local beaches through tonight, followed by a break in the high
  rip current risk on Monday and Tuesday. Swim near a lifeguard,
  and heed the advice of beach flags.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Cold front is just now nudging into our far northwestern sections
(southeast Alabama) as winds are beginning to switch to the west
to northwest from Pensacola FL to Troy AL. Showers are along and
ahead of the front from the Florida panhandle northeast to central
Georgia. A sharp delineation to temperatures from the low 70s
where clouds have been entrenched most of the day in our western
sections to mid/upper 80s into the east Florida Big Bend and
adjacent southern Georgia.

The front is progged to continue its slow march through the Tri-
State region through the rest of the afternoon and overnight
hours, and end up south of our Gulf waters and stretching across
the Florida peninsula Monday morning. Unfortunately, the trends in
the 12Z models show an overall weakening trend in rainfall into
this evening and overnight as it reaches the Tri-State corner this
evening. As the front moves through, winds will swing around to
the north and northeast, bringing with it cooler with somewhat
drier air (the further north you are) with lows overnight in the
low 50s in the wiregrass to mid 60s in the southeast Big Bend.

A weak vort lobe moves across the northern Gulf coast Monday and
Monday night which appears to bring enough lift to spark isolated
showers generally over the Gulf waters north to the I-10 corridor.
Chances stand at 30-50% in the afternoon hours with the higher end
of the range along the Forgotten and Nature coasts and into the
extreme southeast Big Bend. Otherwise, highs will be cooler and
range through the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Shortwave will continue moving east Monday night with isolated
showers focused into the southeast Big Bend. On Tuesday, shortwave
ridging will set up with a drying in the 700-500mb layer which
will lead to dwindling rain chances along the coast and partly
sunny skies. At the same time, sprawling high pressure will
situate in the northeast and, with the cold front remaining across
the peninsula, will strengthen the pressure gradient Tuesday
through Thursday. There will be an uptick in gusty winds each day
with the highest potential centered on Wednesday. In fact, a wind
advisory may be needed as 925-850mb winds in the 35-40 knot range
during the day and the potential to mix down surface gusts near 40
mph.

A second shortwave will lift northward from the Gulf Wednesday
which will help initiate a few showers from south to north during
the day and overnight before it lifts north of the region
Thursday. From Thursday through Saturday, a 500mb ridge develops
and strengthens through the southeast CONUS. Rainfall chances
gradually end and the warmup commences with 80s returning in
earnest by the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Used the latest HRRR and current radar to update timing on
convection affecting ECP/DHN/ABY this aftn. Somewhat reluctantly
kept a mention of thunder based on the sat trends. Much of the
precip looks to dissipate after 0Z with a band of MVFR cigs crossing
the terminals as FroPa occurs. Winds then shift out of the north
tonight, followed by renewed shower development streaming SW to NE
across TLH/VLD tmrw morning. A 12-18Z PROB30 for -RA was intro`d to
acct amidst high to lower-level clouds from north to south.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A cold front will push south across the waters this evening,
followed by a shift to fresh and strong north to northeast breezes.
Advisory level winds will take hold after midnight in waters west
of Mexico Beach with cautionary conditions east of Mexico Beach to
Apalachee Bay. Winds will slowly relax Monday afternoon though
cautionary conditions are likely to continue across all northeast
Gulf waters. Winds will turn easterly on Tuesday as high pressure
moves east of the Carolinas. Stronger high pressure will bridge
in from the north on Tuesday night, freshening the easterlies from
Tuesday night through Thursday. During that time, Small Craft
Advisory conditions will return, and there is a medium chance of
gales.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A cold front will continue its trek southeast through the rest of
the day and overnight, positioned south of our area by Monday
morning. Isolated light showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, will
continue in association with the front though overall probabilities
will be decreasing. Behind the front, winds shift to the north
bringing in a cooler and drier airmass. Monday, light showers will
be confined mainly south of I-10 while Tuesday will be mainly dry.

Tuesday will have partly to mostly sunny skies which will promote
good mixing and afternoon humidities falling to near 25% from the
ANF northeast to the I-75 corridor of southwest Georgia. Coupled
with increasing afternoon winds, this will lead to elevated fire
weather conditions through these districts. Any outdoor burning is
discouraged.

Wednesday, rain chances and moisture increase, along with the winds.
In fact, easterly gusts may reach to the 30-40 mph range.

Winds will decrease late week into the weekend though a few light
showers here and there Thursday cannot be ruled out. High
temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be in the 70s with 80s
thereafter into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

No flooding is expected for the next 7 days.

Rainfall through the rest of the afternoon and early evening will
be maximized west of the Flint/Apalachicola Rivers where a half to
an inch of rainfall will likely occur. As the front moves
southeast and the rainfall takes a downward trend, a few hundredths
to perhaps a tenth or two is anticipated.

Forecast rainfall beginning overnight tonight through Thursday
ranges from just a few hundredths of an inch over the wiregrass to
about one- half inch in the southeast Big Bend. This will be well
short of amounts needed to produce flooding, and it will be short
of amounts needed for meaningful drought relief.

For more local drought information and statements, visit the
following websites:
weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought
weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   58  72  55  76 /  20  30  20  10
Panama City   57  70  57  78 /  20  30  20  10
Dothan        51  68  50  76 /  20   0  10   0
Albany        52  71  50  76 /  30   0  10   0
Valdosta      58  72  55  76 /  30  20  20  10
Cross City    61  77  53  74 /  10  50  60  30
Apalachicola  59  69  58  72 /  30  50  40  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ751-770.

&&

$$