Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 7:00 PM

AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
649 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section has been updated for the 00z TAFs. Key
Message 1 was adjusted.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A cold front will advance through the region this afternoon
  bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms.

- 2) Cooler temperatures expected for the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will advance through the region
tonight.

The risk for deep convection is waning as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. A few rumbles of thunder could
still occur over the next few hours, but the risk for
concentrated areas of tstms is diminishing. The cold front is
timed to reach areas adjacent to the CSRA and Southern Midlands
just after midnight, south coastal South Carolina into the I-16
corridor just before 3 AM Monday and clear McIntosh County, GA,
by 6 AM Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cooler temperatures expected for the work week.

Notably cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front,
as a wedge of high pressure sets up off the northeast coast
into Wednesday. Mostly dry conditions are expected Monday
through Wednesday, though a few showers along the lower GA coast
aren`t out of the question. An elevated fire risk is expected
across inland areas Tuesday and Wednesday as dewpoints mix out
during the afternoon and breezy NE winds occur.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06/00z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: The risk for tstms impacts at all terminals is
ending. A few showers could linger near the terminals over the
next few hours, but major impacts are unlikely. VFR cigs will
generally prevail. An approaching cold front should reach all
terminals in the 06-07z timeframe. Gusty north winds will
develop just before daybreak and linger for much of the day
Monday. Gusts in excess of 20 kt are likely.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Breezy NE winds Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The cold front is timed to push offshore late tonight,
followed by a surge of gusty northeast winds. Small Craft
Advisories outside the Charleston Harbor will be in effect by
daybreak Monday.

Monday through Friday: A persistent northeast gradient will
occur Monday into Saturday as high pressure builds to the
northwest. The strongest winds are expected Tuesday into
Wednesday when we could see Gale force winds over most of the
marine area. Seas will steadily build through mid week, with
some swells reaching 15-16 ft beyond 40 nm from shore late Wed.
For now we have Small Craft Advisories for all waters except
Charleston Harbor running through Saturday, though we`ll likely
need to replace these with Gales at some point as we get closer
to the Tue/Wed time frame.

Rip Currents: Increase NE winds and building swells will result
in an elevated rip current risk much of the upcoming week.

High Surf: High surf and beach erosion could impact the beaches
Wednesday and Thursday as seas build 8+ feet over the coastal
waters. High Surf Advisories could be needed.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     AMZ350-352.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     AMZ354-374.

&&

$$