Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 7:27 PM

AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
616 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Low to medium rain chances continue into Monday morning

- Below-normal temps through mid-week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Much needed rain continues to accumulate across South Texas on
this Easter Sunday. Storm total estimates from radar are generally
ranging from around 0.50" across portions of the Victoria
Crossroads to near 3" over the Brush Country, with localized
amounts up to near 5" near Three Rivers. Although cannot rule out
an isolated rumble of thunder this afternoon, most of the rain
will be stratiform through Monday morning. Rain chances will
however begin to decrease through the late afternoon into the
overnight hours as the disturbance continues to drift away into
the Gulf waters and the atmosphere stabilizes. Latest CAM runs
indicate a few more rounds of light stratiform rain through Monday
morning, but the general trend is to begin to dry out with
additional accumulations remaining less than a 0.25". The rest of
the week is shaping to be drier, but slight rain and thunderstorm
chances return by late week into the weekend as another shortwave
tracks aloft.

Below normal temperatures continue through Tuesday. Onshore flow
resumes Tuesday night allowing for moisture return into the region
and leading to a warming trend through the rest of the week with
well above normal temperatures again by next weekend. Aside from
patchy light fog tonight, no other hazards are forecast at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions are expected to continue for the
next few hours as the rain hangs around. Between 04-06z, rain
chances will decrease and ceilings should begin to lift,
returning all sites back to VFR. Light winds are expected
throughout this TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A fresh to strong (BF 5-6) northerly breeze continues through
Monday morning, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect. Winds will
gradually diminish Monday weakening to a moderate breeze Monday
night before shifting onshore on Tuesday. High rain chances (70-
90%) will continue through tonight, decreasing to a medium chance
(30-50%) Monday. Low end rain chances (20-30%) will exist daily
through the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Low to medium rain chances continue through Monday morning. Although
drier conditions will develop through Wednesday, slight rain and
thunderstorm chances return to the forecast by late week into the
weekend. Relative humidity values will remain above critical
thresholds. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are not
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    57  71  55  75 /  70  20   0  10
Victoria          53  76  50  78 /  40  10   0   0
Laredo            57  71  55  78 /  40  10   0  10
Alice             54  73  53  78 /  70  20   0  10
Rockport          59  75  60  77 /  70  20   0  10
Cotulla           55  73  53  78 /  30  10   0   0
Kingsville        55  71  53  75 /  70  20   0  10
Navy Corpus       61  71  63  74 /  80  30   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$