Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Sun Apr 5, 2026 7:27 PM

AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
712 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the tidal rivers of
eastern Virginia and the Currituck Sound.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly
below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze
headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with
widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast.

2) Depending on the amount of rainfall received this afternoon and
evening, there may be potential for heightened fire danger early
this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures behind the cold front will trend
near or slightly below average early next week with the
potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks
to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible
away from the coast.

Showers/tstms are pushing off the VA coast and moving across NE
NC this afternoon. These tstms will pose a severe risk (mainly
damaging wind) during the next 1-2hrs. Otherwise, the severe
threat behind this line has diminished. Temperatures fall into
the 60s behind the leading line of convection. Cooler drier air
will filter in overnight behind the cold front tonight.

Temperatures will trend closer to average or below average this
week. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 60s (lower 60s at the
coast) and mid 50s N to mid 60s S on Tuesday, as a secondary
cold front drops south through the area Tuesday providing a
reinforced shot of CAA. Strong high pressure builds to the north
of the area by midweek which will result in cooler conditions
Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s due to the NE
flow. There will be potential for frost or freeze headlines both
Tuesday night-Wednesday AM and Wednesday night-Thursday AM for
areas where the growing season has started. For reference, the
growing season has started 4/1 for all but the far NW counties,
which start 4/11. At this time, Wednesday morning looks to have
the highest potential for a freeze, with widespread lows around
freezing possible, with even upper 20s possible in the Piedmont.
This will depend on how much boundary layer decoupling occurs,
which will be primarily affected by how far south the high
builds. Temperatures gradually moderate back to near seasonal
averages late in the week while dry conditions persist.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Depending on the amount of rainfall received
this afternoon and evening, there may be potential for
heightened fire weather concerns early this week.

With the two cold fronts and high pressure building over the
area this week, there is potential for heightened fire weather
concerns as dewpoints drop significantly and minimum RH values
reach to the mid 20s to mid 30s for portions of the area.
However, winds are not expected to be more than 15-20 mph early
this week. With the large majority of the area under a moderate
drought, there may be some concern for fire weather by Tuesday
depending on the amount of rainfall received today. So far
today, areas from the Middle Peninsula W through the southside
RIC metro/Chesterfield/Tri-Cities SW through the I-85 corridor
has only has 0.1" or less, with generally 0.1-0.25" NW of this
corridor. These areas will see little to no additional rainfall.
Farther E, there has generally been 0.25- 0.5" with locally
higher amounts for areas that have had showers/tstms, and
showers/tstms are still expected to fill in across NE NC, so
these locations should have beneficial rainfall through the
evening.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Sunday...

Showers and a few tstms are moving into the region in advance
of a cold front. Primarily VFR ahead of the showers with a SW
wind of 15-20kt gusting to 25-30kt, and locally higher at ORF
and ECG. Showers move through RIC/SBY through 21-23z, ORF/PHF
through 00-02s, and ECG through ~04z, with the best chc of tstms
at PHF, ORF, and ECG. Brief strong westerly wind gusts are
possible with tstms. However, tstm wind gusts will likely not be
much higher than the synoptic gusts occurring as of 18z.
Periodic MVFR cigs are expected the aftn and then prevailing
later this aftn and evening at most sites with the exception of
RIC. Brief IFR vsby is expected in heavy rain. The wind will
generally diminish to WSW 8-12kt after convection passes and
once stratiform rain develops. A wind shift to N/NW is expected
behind the cold front, with gusts to ~20kt at ORF and ECG. Dry
and VFR conditions return tonight into Monday. A NW wind of
5-10kt Monday morning will become W in the aftn.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail Monday night through Friday. A
secondary dry cold front will cross the area Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 710 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs are in effect for all waters through Monday morning.

- Strong high pressure building in behind another cold front
  will likely bring additional SCA conditions Tuesday night into
  Wednesday.

Light S winds early this evening will quickly turn to the N and
increase late this evening and early Monday morning behind a
cold front. Wind speeds will reach 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30
kt for all waters early Monday morning. These elevated wind
speeds will not last long (~6-8 hrs), but given the decent
pressure rises behind the front, should see all waters reach SCA
criteria. Therefore, have added all the tidal rivers and the
Currituck Sound to the SCA. Waves 3-4 ft on the Bay and 4-5 feet
on the coastal waters.

Winds quickly drop off after 7 AM Monday as transient high
pressure slides in overhead. Becoming breezy as winds turn back
to the SSW Monday evening ahead of another (dry) cold front
early Tuesday morning, then breezy out of the north behind it
Tues. An extra push of CAA and pressure rises are expected as
strong high pressure settles into the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. NE winds during this period are forecast to increase
back to SCA levels for at least the southern coastal waters and
lower Ches. Bay. The onshore surge should also build seas to at
least 5ft for the southern waters as well.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631-638-
     650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634-656-
     658.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday
     for ANZ633-635>637.

&&

$$